September means AFL Finals Footy! And it all gets underway this Friday night when Hawthorn takes on Collingwood. Then on Saturday afternoon Adelaide host Sydney followed by Geelong v Fremantle and Sunday afternoon sees West Coast at home against North Melbourne. If you are considering placing a bet on any of the finals footy be sure to get the highest odds by using betonfooty.com.au's Live AFL Finals Odds comparisons.
The Hawks are favourites for this massive game Friday night at the MCG. Current odds see the Hawks trading between $1.3 up to $1.33 while if you fancy the Magpies to cause the upset you can get odds ranging between $3.60 up to $3.65. The Line Handicap currently sits at Hawthorn -22.5 Collingwood +22.5 (with -/+21.5 also available). The last time they met was in round 17 this season, Hawthorn got the win (21.12) 138 to (13.13) 91 as $1.85 favourites. These two teams have produced vastly different results for punters in the line handicap market this year. Hawthorn have been the most profitable team against the line with a 15-7 (+$725) record while Collingwood only managed to cover the handicap bet 7 times, falling short on 15 occasions producing a loss of -$835 (for $100 bets each week).
The prediction - Our no commission handicapping priced this game up with the Hawks at $1.30 and the Magpies around $4.30 so we are in agreement with the current lines and therefore will leave this one alone.
Round 6 this season was the last time the Crows and Swans met, on that occasion Sydney started as $1.26 (-25.5) home favourites however it was Adelaide as $4.34 (+25.5) underdogs who caused the upset, recording an impressive 5 point win (99-94). This time around it is finals footy being played in Adelaide and the bookmakers current AFL odds have the Crows priced between $1.64 up to $1.66 while the Swans are trading between $2.25 up to $2.40. In the Line Handicap market we see most bookies running with Adelaide -7.5 Sydney +7.5.
The prediction - Our figures don't find any value on offer here either with our no commission numbers pricing the Crows at $1.55 and the Swans at $2.83.
There is no doubting that momentum is an important ingredient in a successful finals campaign and Saturday nights clash at the MCG features two teams with plenty of momentum. Geelong have won 8 of their last 10 regular season games and their opponents the Fremantle Dockers have won 8 of their last 9 games. The bookmakers currently have Geelong trading between $1.3 up to $1.33 and the Dockers are priced between $3.45 up to $3.69 in the Head to head market. The average Line Handicap is Geelong -22.5 Fremantle +22.5 however lines of -/+20.5 and -/+21.5 can also be found. You need to go back to round 1 this year to find the last time these two teams played. Fremantle managed a 4 point win as $2.26 (+6.5) home underdogs with a final scoreline of (16.9) 105 to (15.11) 101.
The prediction - Once again we don't see enough value either way to warrant a play. We agree that Geelong deserve favouritism however maybe not quite as strongly as the current odds suggest. We think Geelong by around 15 points.
Come Sunday afternoon all eyes will be focused on Patersons Stadium where the Eagles will host the Kangaroos. The bookies odds are only giving North Melbourne around 22% chance of causing the upset and keeping their 2012 campaign alive. The latest Head to head odds see West Coast priced between $1.22 up to $1.24 with North Melbourne trading between $4.40 up to $4.58. The average line handicap is Eagles -27.5 Kangaroos +27.5 however lines of -/+26.5 and -/+28 are also available. These two teams have met twice this season with both victories going to West Coast. In round 6 the Eagles prevailed (17.18) 120 to (15.5) 95 as $1.20 (-28.5) home favourites and in round 15 the Eagles won (12.14) 86 to (13.6) 84 as $1.47 (-15) road favourites.
The Prediction - Well we don't bet for the sake of it we only have action when our figures show value. We priced this up as West Coast $1.37 and North Melbourne $3.67 so there is not enough variation to warrant a play either way for us.
BetonFooty.com.au wishes all of you who are having a punt on the finals the best of luck!