New South Wales v Queensland

State of Origin Game 1, 2012

Game 1 of the 2012 State of Origin Series is being played at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne this Wednesday Night at 8.10pm. The current Head to Head NRL Odds market sees New South Wales trading between $2.72 up to $2.90 while odds for the favourites Queensland are trading between $1.43 up to $1.505. The Line Handicap varies between bookmakers with NSW +6 QLD -6 being the average however you can find +/-5.5 and +/-6.5 lines available. The over under total line also differs amongst the bookies with the line ranging from O/U 36.5 up to O/U39.5.

Taking the bookmakers average line handicap of NSW +6 QLD -6 and the game total of O/U38.5 we can see that the bookmakers lines are approximating NSW to score 16.25 points to QLD's 22.25. The last State of Origin game played in Melbourne was at Etihad Stadium in game One in the 2009 series. Queensland were $1.53 (-5.5) favourites for that game and ran out 10 point winners (28-18), covering the line handicap by 4.5 points.

New South Wales Team Line Up: The NSW selectors have picked just 8 players from the game 3 side of last year. Much of the media attention has been focused on the gamble of picking two out of form players in Jarryd Hayne and Michael Jennings as well as Tony Williams who has not played in two months. The New South Wales side includes: Brett Stewart, Jarryd Hayne, Michael Jennings, Josh Morris, Akuila Uate, Todd Carney, Mitchell Pearce, Paul Gallen, Robbie Farah, James Tamou, Glenn Stewart, Luke Lewis, Greg Bird and interchange players Trent Merrin, Jamie Buhrer, Ben Creagh and Tony Williams, Coached by Ricky Stuart.

Queensland Team Line Up: The Queensland selectors have pretty much stuck with their 2011 squad, if it aint broke! The retirment of Darren Lockyer sees Johnathan Thurston move to five-eight while Cooper Cronk will take over at half back. The Queensland team consists of: Billy Slater, Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Justin Hodges, Brent Tate, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Mathew Scott, Cameron Smith, Petro Civoniceva, Nate Myles, Sam Thaiday and Ashley Harrison with interchange players Matt Gillett, David Taylor, Ben Hannant, David Shillington, Daly Cherry-Evans and Dane Nielsen. Coached by Mal Meninga.

State of Origin Winning Margin Odds: A quick check of the leading Online Bookmakers odds for the ever popular winning margin bet shows that currently the highest odds for New South Wales to win by 1-12 points is $4.00, NSW by 13+ is $8.75 while for a Queensland win by 1-12 points you can get $2.85 and for QLD by 13+ $3.05 with the draw at $26.25. It is always advisable to shop the bookmakers find the highest odds before placing your bet and this market is no exception. Currently the highest odds for each option that we have found are at Pinnacle Sports who are running on considerably lower margins than most bookies in this market.

NSW v QLD 1st and 2nd Half Betting: While we all know who has dominated State of Origin in recent times, digging into the stats a little further can unearth some interesting numbers. New South Wales are in fact 4-1-1 in second half results over the last six games having won the last 4 straight. Taking a look at the 1st and 2nd half betting markets we see that current 1st half head to head odds are NSW $2.35 QLD $1.65 with the 1st half line between +/-3 points and +/-3.5 points. In 2nd half betting you can get H2H odds of NSW $2.35 QLD $1.57 and the line varies between NSW +3 QLD -3 and +/-3.5.

NRL State of Origin Betting History, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
03/06/09 1.53 -5.5 Queensland 28 V 18 New South Wales 5.5 2.5
24/06/09 2.35 4.5 New South Wales 14 V 24 Queensland -4.5 1.6
15/07/09 1.5 -6 Queensland 16 V 28 New South Wales 6 2.6
26/05/10 2.15 3.5 New South Wales 24 V 28 Queensland -3.5 1.7
16/06/10 1.42 -6.5 Queensland 34 V 6 New South Wales 6.5 2.85
07/07/10 2.4 -6 New South Wales 18 V 23 Queensland 6 1.57
25/05/11 1.48 -6 Queensland 16 V 12 New South Wales 6 2.68
15/06/11 2.33 3.5 New South Wales 18 V 8 Queensland -3.5 1.65
06/07/11 1.56 -4.5 Queensland 34 V 24 New South Wales 4.5 2.52

The Prediction - here at our handicapping numbers pretty much agree with those of the bookies. We priced this game up with no commission odds of NSW $2.89 QLD $1.53 with a Line of around 4.5 points and a total of about 40, so we do not see enough value in any of these major markets to warrant a play. But with hundreds of betting options available on this game there will no doubt be some value to be found elsewhere.