Brisbane v Gold Coast

NRL Round 8, 2012 -

BroncosTitans

NRL Round 8 Friday Night Football sees the Brisbane Broncos playing host to the Gold Coast Titans. The bookmaker's odds suggest that the Broncos have about an 81% chance of denying the Titans their 3rd win of the season. Current NRL Odds have Brisbane between $1.21 and $1.24 in the head to head market while odds for the Gold Coast to win range from $4.25 up to $4.69. The Line handicap is currently Brisbane -12 Gold Coast +12 at Pinnacle and Sportsbet.com.au while Centrbet and Luxbet have the line at -/+12.5. Currently in the over under total market the line is differing amongst the bookies with O/U36 available at standard $1.90 pricing and O/U38.5 and O/U40.5 also available with the under bet at lower odds.

Brisbane Broncos: The outright second placed Brisbane Broncos have 6 wins and 1 loss heading into round 8. They have recorded wins over PAR (18-6), NEW (24-10), STH (20-12), STG (28-20), WST (18-14) and CAN (30-6) with their only loss coming against NQ (26-28) in round two. Brisbane have the 3rd best defensive record in the league having allowed an average 13.71 points per game while in attack they have averaged 23.43 (3rd) which gives them a points differential of +9.72. Backing the Broncos in the NRL betting markets has been profitable thus far with their line handicap record of 5-2 (+$275) and head to head record of 6-1 +$282.

Gold Coast Titans: John Cartwright's Titans are looking for back to back wins having beaten Manly last week, a feat they have not accomplished since September 2010. The Titans two wins have been against the Cowboys (18-0) and Sea Eagles (14-26) while they have lost to the Raiders (12-24), Storm (6-30), Warriors (6-26), Bulldogs (20-30) and Roosters (12-18). The Gold Coast has a negative point's differential of -6 having averaged 14.29 points per game and allowing 20.29. Against the NRL line handicap the Titans are 2-5 (-$310) and they are -$2 against the money line (for $100 bets each week).

Brisbane v Gold Coast Winning Margin Odds

If the low odds on offer for the Broncos are not attractive then the Winning Margin bet might be the answer. Currently the best odds on Brisbane to win by 1-12 points is $3.35 and for Brisbane by 13+ you can get $1.95. On the flip side for the Gold Coast to win by 1-12 points the odds are $6.25 and by 13+ $14.50 while the draw option is currently $34.

NRL Betting History Brisbane v Gold Coast Round 8, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
13/04/07 3.9 10 Gold Coast 28 V 16 Brisbane -10 1.3
06/07/07 1.4 -7.5 Brisbane 19 V 18 Gold Coast 7.5 3.24
18/04/08 2.09 0 Gold Coast 26 V 24 Brisbane 0 1.84
22/08/08 1.27 -11.5 Brisbane 25 V 21 Gold Coast 11.5 4.15
15/05/09 1.5 -6 Brisbane 32 V 18 Gold Coast 6 2.8
24/07/09 1.32 -8.5 Gold Coast 34 V 18 Brisbane 8.5 3.77
14/05/10 1.87 0 Brisbane 28 V 6 Gold Coast 0 2.04
16/07/10 1.98 0 Gold Coast 10 V 24 Brisbane 0 1.93
25/03/11 2.17 2.5 Gold Coast 8 V 14 Brisbane -2.5 1.78
15/07/11 1.23 -12.5 Brisbane 30 V 10 Gold Coast 12.5 4.73

Brisbane v Gold Coast Betting History: The Broncos and Titans have met 10 times in regular season play over the last 5 years with the Broncos leading 8-2. The winning team has covered the line handicap 8 times and fallen short twice. Also with stats of 8-2 are the favourites v underdogs (8-2) and home v away (8-2). The average game total over this time is 40.90 points. The last time they met the odds and line were very similar, the Broncos starting as $1.23 (-12) point favourites and won by 30-10.

The verdict - BetonFooty.com.au's handicapping numbers agree with the current H2H odds and Line, so no wagers there. We do see value in the over under total however and have a play on under 40.5 points.