NRL round 7 sees the St George Illawarra Dragons hosting their first round opponents the Newcastle Knights in Friday night footy. The head to head odds and line for this game are basically a reversal of the odds for round one with the Dragons installed as favourites. The current Live NRL Odds show that the St George Illawarra Dragons are trading between $1.57 to $1.63 in the head to head market while the Newcastle Knights odds range from $2.35 to $2.45. The NRL line for this game is consistent amongst the bookmakers with the Dragons at -4 and the Knights +4.
St George Illawarra have 3 wins, over Newcastle (15-14), Wests (36-12) and Manly (17-6) and 3 losses against Canterbury (4-30), Brisbane (20-28) and Cronulla (0-12). The Dragons have averaged 15.33 points per game while conceding 17 for a negative differential of -1.67 point per game. In NRL betting results the Dragons are 3-3 against the line handicap for -$15 and they are showing a +$15 result against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week) as a results of their 3-3- record. St George Illawarra has a 2-0 home record this season with this being only their 3rd home appearance. Their previous home games were strong wins and they currently have a home points differential of +17.5 however they will need to buck a strong historical trend (more on that later) if they wish to keep their home record intact.
The Newcastle Knights are coming off their 3rd win of the season after beating the Parramatta Eels (14-6) at home last week. The Knights other 2 wins have been against Canterbury (20-6) and Cronulla (18-6) with their losses being against the Dragons (14-15), Broncos (10-24) and Storm (22-34). Newcastle has an average point’s differential of +1.17 by way of scoring an average of 16.33 points per game while allowing an average of 15.17. In NRL betting results the Knights have a 3-3 record against the line handicap -$15 and are -$11 against the head to head odds.
|23/03/07||1.52||-6.5||St. George Illawarra||12||16||Newcastle||6.5||2.74|
|03/08/07||2.4||3.5||Newcastle||4||20||St. George Illawarra||-3.5||1.65|
|18/04/09||1.49||-6||St. George Illawarra||18||24||Newcastle||6||2.85|
|28/08/10||2.34||3.5||Newcastle||18||26||St. George Illawarra||-3.5||1.68|
|03/04/11||2.62||5||Newcastle||18||20||St. George Illawarra||-5||1.56|
|03/07/11||1.74||-2.5||St. George Illawarra||10||14||Newcastle||2.5||2.22|
|01/03/12||1.61||-4||Newcastle||14||15||St. George Illawarra||4||2.49|
If you like betting NRL trends then this match up has produced a strong trend in the past. The away team has won the last 7 regular season encounters straight up over the last 5 years and covered the NRL line handicap 6-1. Going back even further shows that the away team has won the last 9 straight and since the 2004 season the Away team has won 11 to the home teams 2. Those two home victories were both achieved by the Dragons in round 4 2004 and in round 26 of the 2005 season. The past 7 games have been relatively low scoring affairs with an average game total of 32.71 points
The verdict - here at BetonFooty.com.au our head to head and line handicap numbers are nearly spot on with the bookmakers lines for this games so we don't have any plays there. We will keep an eye out for the over under total line once it is released but baring any major weather conditions we are expecting the line to be somewhere around O/U36.