Melbourne v Canterbury

NRL Round 7, 2012 -

StormBulldogs

The undefeated Melbourne Storm host the Canterbury Bulldogs at AAMI Park in NRL round 7. The NRL line handicap is currently Storm -9.5 Bulldogs +9.5 with most bookmakers, Pinnacle Sports are currently running with a -/+ 10.5 line. By comparing our Live NRL Odds we see that Melbourne's head to head odds range from $1.29 to $1.33 and the Canterbury Bulldogs odds range between $3.5 up to $3.75.

It was business as usual for the Melbourne Storm last round when they beat the Cowboys by 24 points (42-18) and increased their unbeaten run to 6-0. Melbourne's other wins have come against the Raiders (24-19), Rabbitohs (24-10), Titans (30-6), Roosters (44-4) and Knights (34-22). Sitting atop of the ladder the Storm have the best attacking record averaging 33 points per game and the second best defensive record (behind the Sharks ) allowing 13.77 points per game, which gives them a differential of +19.83. Of course if you have been backing Melbourne in either the NRL head to head or line handicap betting markets then you have been making money. With a 6-0 record against the NRL line handicap the Storm are showing a profit of +$570 (for $100 bets each week) and a profit of +$276 against the head to head odds.

The Canterbury Bulldogs started the season with 3 straight wins over Penrith (22-14), St George Illawarra (30-4) and New Zealand (32-18). The last 3 games have seen them go 1-2, with a win over the Titans (30-20) and losses to Newcastle (6-20) and Souths (10-20). Notably Trent Hodkinson (halfback) was injured (knee) in the Newcastle clash and missed the Titans and Rabbitohs games, he is expected to return in round 10. The Bulldogs have averaged 21.67 points per game and have allowed 16 for a differential of +5.67. In NRL betting results they have gone 4-2 against the line handicap bet for +$180 and show a profit of +$257.90 against the money line odds.

NRL Betting History Melbourne v Canterbury Round 7, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
14/05/07 1.58 -5.5 Melbourne 38 V 14 Canterbury 5.5 2.42
24/08/07 1.89 2 Canterbury 6 V 38 Melbourne -2 2.02
31/05/08 1.2 -13.5 Melbourne 46 V 0 Canterbury 13.5 5.2
23/05/09 2.45 3.5 Canterbury 26 V 10 Melbourne -3.5 1.63
30/05/10 1.56 -5 Melbourne 23 V 12 Canterbury 5 2.62
10/07/10 1.87 0 Canterbury 20 V 18 Melbourne 0 2.04
04/04/11 1.8 -2 Melbourne 30 V 16 Canterbury 2 2.13
09/07/11 2.6 6 Canterbury 18 V 28 Melbourne -6 1.56

There have been 8 regular season games played between the Storm and the Bulldogs over the last 5 years. In that time Melbourne have won 6 to Canterbury’s 2, Melbourne at home are 4-0 with winning margins of (24, 46, 11, 14) and the team who has won the game outright has covered the line handicap 8-0. The average game total has been 42.88 points.

The verdict - BetonFooty.com.au's figures show value on the Melbourne Storm against the NRL line handicap and we have taken them at -9.5. Will check on the total once the bookmakers post their lines.