The Cronulla Sharks go into Saturday night’s local derby against the St George Illawarra Dragons as underdogs. Currently the bookmakers have the Sharks at $2.2 in the NRL head to head market with the Dragons at $1.77. Scanning our live NRL Odds and lines we see that the line handicap is ranging between Sharks +2, Dragons -2 and Sharks +2.5, Dragons -2.5. The early over under total is at O/U 35.5.
Cronulla have 3 wins and 2 losses so far this season. They have gone down to the Tigers (16-17) and Knights (6-18) in the first 2 rounds and have won their last 3 straight games, beating the Sea Eagles (17-14), Cowboys (20-14) and Panthers (15-14). The Sharks defense has been solid allowing an average of only 15.4 points per game while in attack they are averaging 14.8 giving them a negative differential of -.60. In NRL betting the Cronulla Sharks are 4-1 against the line handicap for a profit of +$280 and they come into round 6 as the second most profitable team against the head to head odds +$305.
The Dragons conceded 24 unanswered points in the first half against the Broncos last week and no doubt that has been a talking point at training this week. The second half was much improved with the Dragons scoring 20 points to Brisbane's 4, leaving the final score line looking more respectable at 20-28. St George Illawarra have a 3-2 record with wins over Newcastle (15-14), Wests (36-12) and Manly (17-6) while they have been beaten by Canterbury (4-30) and Brisbane (20-28). The Dragons have a +.40 point’s differential having scored an average of 18.40 points per game while allowing an average of 18. In NRL betting results the Dragons are 3-2 +$85 against the line handicap and show a profit of +$115 against the head to head odds.
|09/04/07||1.99||0||Cronulla||40||4||St. George Illawarra||0||1.92|
|11/06/07||1.82||0||St. George Illawarra||16||20||Cronulla||0||2.12|
|29/03/09||1.42||-8||St. George Illawarra||10||6||Cronulla||8||3.14|
|23/05/09||2.89||6.5||Cronulla||4||26||St. George Illawarra||-6.5||1.47|
|01/05/10||1.19||-14.5||St. George Illawarra||38||0||Cronulla||14.5||5.54|
|20/06/10||3||7.5||Cronulla||4||22||St. George Illawarra||-7.5||1.43|
|21/03/11||5.23||14||Cronulla||16||10||St. George Illawarra||-14||1.2|
|18/07/11||1.34||-8.5||St. George Illawarra||38||8||Cronulla||8.5||3.56|
With 8 regular season matches between these two teams in the past 5 years the St George Illawarra Dragons have had the edge 5-3. The team who wins straight up has also covered the NRL line in 7 of the 8. The starting favourite has won 5-3 and the highest priced underdog win was Cronulla at odds of $5.23 last season.
The verdict - BetonFooty.com.au's numbers show sufficient value on the Sharks to warrant a play. We have taken them at $2.20 on the head to head. No plays on the line handicap or total.