Melbourne v Canberra

NRL Round 18, 2012 -

The Melbourne Storm host the Canberra Raiders in NRL Round 18. Current NRL Head to Head Odds see the Storm priced between $1.20 up to $1.25 while the Canberra Raiders odds are ranging between $4.15 up to $4.85. Bookmakers have the line set at around Melbourne -12.5 Canberra +12.5 with some offering MEL -13.5 CAN +13.5 and the early over under total looks like O/U38.5 points.

Melbourne Storm: Despite 2 losses from their last 3 games Craig Bellamy's Storm still sit comfortable on top of the ladder with a 4 point margin over 2nd placed Canterbury. Melbourne have a 12-3 record, having averaged 25.87 points per game while allowing 13 for an impressive +12.87 points per game differential. In recent NRL scores and results the Storm have lost to the Bulldogs (4-20), defeated the Se Eagles (26-22), lost to the Tigers (6-10) and had a win against the Warriors (22-12). When it comes to NRL betting results Melbourne are 12-3 (+$840) against the line handicap and they are +$340.40 against the head to head odds.

Canberra Raiders: The Green Machine continued their dominance over the Dragons last week with a (22-18) victory in the nations capital. Other recent results for the Raiders include a (18-40) loss to the Cowboys, a (32-16) win against the Knights and a (0-40) thumping by the Tigers. Sitting in 13th place on the ladder with 6 wins and 9 losses the Raiders yet again have had a season plagued with injuries and disappointment. Betting results for Canberra sees them with a 6-8-1 (-$230) record against the line handicap and their win loss record has them showing a loss of -$95.70 against the money line odds.

NRL Betting History Melbourne v Canberra Round 18, 2012

Date	Odds	Line	Home	Score	V	Score	Away	Line	Odds
24/03/07	4.75	12	Canberra	16		32	Melbourne	-12	1.23
21/07/07	1.13	-16.5	Melbourne	34		6	Canberra	16.5	6.75
21/04/08	4.05	10.5	Canberra	16		23	Melbourne	-10.5	1.29
06/07/08	1.12	-17.5	Melbourne	30		14	Canberra	17.5	7.25
18/05/09	1.29	-10.5	Melbourne	46		6	Canberra	10.5	4
28/06/09	2.55	5.5	Canberra	26		16	Melbourne	-5.5	1.53
15/05/10	2.4	3.5	Canberra	6		17	Melbourne	-3.5	1.65
01/08/10	1.49	-6	Melbourne	36		12	Canberra	6	2.84
14/05/11	1.16	-14.5	Melbourne	12		20	Canberra	14.5	6.05
17/07/11	2.47	4	Canberra	0		26	Melbourne	-4	1.61
03/03/12	2.38	4.5	Canberra	19		24	Melbourne	-4.5	1.65

Melbourne v Canberra History: Interestingly for two team who both historically have strong home field advantages, the past 3 results have all gone the way of the visiting team. Over the past eleven regular season games the Storm have the advantage 9-2. The home away record is 5-6 while the starting favourite has won 9 times and the underdogs 2 times. The team who has won straight out has also covered the line handicap at a rate of 9-2 and the average game total is 39.73.

The Prediction - Our figures here at BetonFooty.com.au agree that Melbourne are deserved favourites (no questions there!) and we don't see enough value in the head to head market for a play. We do however see sufficient value in the line handicap market on the Raiders for a wager, we have backed Canberra +13.5.