Penrith v New Zealand

NRL Round 14, 2012 -


The Penrith Panthers host the New Zealand Warriors in NRL Monday Night football. The latest NRL odds have the Panthers trading between $2.80 up to $2.95 in the head to head market while the Warriors are trading between $1.42 up to $1.46. The Line Handicap sees most bookmakers running a line of Penrith +6.5 New Zealand -6.5 and the over under total is between O/U32.5 up to O/U35.5 depending on the bookie.

The Panthers: Penrith will be without Origin stars Luke Lewis, Michael Jennings and Tim Grant for this all important clash. In recent NRL results the Panthers have had the bye, defeated Manly (22-4) and St George Illawarra (13-12) and gone down narrowly to North Queensland (28-30). Penrith have an average point’s differential of -5.92 having scored an average of 16.33 points per game while conceding 22.25. In NRL betting Ivan Cleary's men have gone 5-7 (-$225) against the Line Handicap bet and they are showing a loss of -$93 for $100 bets each week against the head to head odds.

The Warriors: New Zealand have not traveled well this season, sporting a 1-4 away record which is 3rd worst in the league. Recent results have seen them lose to Melbourne (12-22), have the bye, lose to Wests (22-24) and get a win against Sydney (30-26). New Zealand has averaged 22.67 points per game while allowing 24 for a -1.33 differential. In NRL Line betting the Warriors are 4-7 (-$320) while against the money line odds they are -$288.60.

NRL Betting History Penrith v New Zealand Round 14, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
22/06/07 1.48 -6.5 New Zealand 54 V 14 Penrith 6.5 2.88
01/09/07 2.31 3.5 Penrith 20 V 24 New Zealand -3.5 1.7
18/05/08 1.67 -3.5 Penrith 46 V 22 New Zealand 3.5 2.35
31/08/08 1.32 -9.5 New Zealand 42 V 20 Penrith 9.5 3.7
01/08/09 1.29 -10.5 Penrith 32 V 32 New Zealand 10.5 3.97
18/04/10 1.76 -2 New Zealand 12 V 40 Penrith 2 2.2
11/07/10 1.36 -8.5 Penrith 6 V 12 New Zealand 8.5 3.48
01/05/11 1.49 -6 New Zealand 26 V 18 Penrith 6 2.84
20/08/11 3.1 7 Penrith 12 V 26 New Zealand -7 1.43

Penrith v New Zealand History: 9 regular season games over the past 5 years has seen the Warriors with 6 wins to Penriths 2 wins and one draw. The home v away record is 4-4-1 and the favourite v underdog is 6-2-1. No shortage of points in their past encounters with an average game total of 50.89 points. The last time they met New Zealand got the win (26-12) as road favourites at odds of $1.43 (-7) and they covered the line bet by 7 points.

The Prediction - You are really dealing with the unknown when it comes to Penrith minus their Origin stars. For that reason will leave this game alone. The weather looks like it will be a damp track and the bookies have adjusted their totals accordingly. Taking the line of +/-6.5 with O/U 34 the bookies are approximating a win to the Warriors by 20.25 points to 13.75 which rounded out might be 20-14. With the Origin players out you probably can't argue with the Warriors being favoured by the number they are however with the bad weather and lower scoring predicted, Penrith’s chances of an upset should increase slightly.