Newcastle v Canberra

NRL Round 14, 2012 -


Newcastle Knights host the Canberra Raiders in NRL round 14 at Hunter Stadium, Saturday 7.30pm. The current head to head odds sees the Knights priced between $1.50 up to $1.555 while the Raiders are between $2.50 up to $2.67. The early over under total is O/U 42.5 and comparing the bookmakers NRL Lines we see that the line handicap ranges from Newcastle -4.5 Canberra +4.5 up to -/+6.

Newcastle: The Knights are coming off a 26 point loss to the Broncos (24-50), where they fought back from being 24-0 down to give themselves a chance, only to let the Broncos run all over them towards the end and have the score line blow out. In other recent NRL scores and results we see that Newcastle have lost to the Titans (14-24), Cowboys (12-32) and Roosters (6-24). Newcastle are sitting in 13th place on the ladder with a 4-8 record having averaged 16 points per game while allowing 20.58 for a points differential of -4.58. In NRL betting results the Knights have gone 4-7 (-$320) against the line handicap bet and they are showing a loss of -$366 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week).

Newcastle Line Up: The Knights are without Darius Boyd and Akuila Uate who are on Origin duty, they will be replaced by Peter Mata'utia and Kevin Naiqama with Timana Tahu back from injury and Dane Gagi making his debut for the club.

Canberra Raiders: The Raiders themselves coped a thrashing last week with the Tigers keeping the home side scoreless while raking up 40 points (0-40). The Raiders other recent results include losses to Souths (18-36) and Manly (12-18) and a win over Parramatta (40-34). In 15th place the Riaders have a 4-8 record having averaged 18.09 points per game while conceding 25.17 for a negative average points differential of -7.09. In betting results they are 4-6-1 (-$220) against the line handicap and they are -$195.70 against the money line odds.

Canberra Line Up: Captain David Shillington is on Origin duty and will be replaced by Dane Tilse while Bronson Harrison will make his return and has been named on the bench.

Newcastle v Canberra Winning Margin odds: The top NRL sportsbooks odds always differ in this market and you could be leaving plenty of profit on the table if you are not comparing the odds before placing your bets. Currently odds for Newcastle to win by 1-12 points range between $2.90 up to $3.10, Newcastle by 13+ $2.70 up to $3.15 while for Canberra to get the road win by 1-12 points the odds are between $3.70 up to $4.07 or for Canberra by 13+ $6.25 up to $6.47 and the draw option is out to $28.

NRL Betting History Newcastle v Canberra Round 14, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
02/04/07 2.8 6 Canberra 48 V 18 Newcastle -6 1.5
18/06/07 1.47 -6 Newcastle 22 V 18 Canberra 6 2.7
15/03/08 1.6 -4.5 Newcastle 30 V 14 Canberra 4.5 2.53
17/08/08 1.61 -4 Canberra 38 V 18 Newcastle 4 2.5
11/07/09 1.52 -5.5 Newcastle 23 V 4 Canberra 5.5 2.75
31/08/09 1.88 0 Canberra 30 V 14 Newcastle 0 2.04
18/07/10 1.54 -5.5 Canberra 52 V 18 Newcastle 5.5 2.66
24/04/11 1.69 -3.5 Canberra 12 V 22 Newcastle 3.5 2.31
07/08/11 1.42 -8 Newcastle 40 V 8 Canberra 8 3.14

Newcastle v Canberra History: Having played nine regular season games over the past 5 seasons it is Newcastle who leads 5-4. The home v away record has been dominated by the home team with an 8-1 record. The favourite v underdog results are 7-2 and the winning team has covered the line 8-1. The average game total is a high 47.67

The Prediction - Our handicapping numbers here at pretty much agree with the bookies numbers. While our numbers don't show enough value to warrant a play we have made a side/middle play here. With the difference in lines between the bookmakers we have taken the Knights -4.5 with one bookmaker and Canberra +6 with another. This will result in a small loss if Canberra win or Newcastle win by 1 to 4 points or 7+ points however if the Knights win by exactly 6 points we will Side the game (win 1 bet and have the other refunded) and if they were to win by 5 we would middle the game (win both bets). Given the right odds and handicap numbers these types of low risk wagers can offer long term value.