Melbourne v Wests

NRL Round 14, 2012 -


With Origin stars missing the Melbourne Storm have been installed as underdogs for their home clash against the Wests Tigers. In a rare sight the Storm are underdogs with our live NRL head to head odds comparison showing their current price ranging between $2.70 up to $2.76 while the Wests Tigers are priced between $1.46 up to $1.51. The Line Handicap market sees most bookies running with a line of Melbourne +6 Wests -6 and the early over under total line is O/U 38.5.

Melbourne Storm: Sitting atop the ladder with a handy 11-1 record Melbourne have averaged 29.33 points per game while allowing only 11.92 for a positive differential of +17.41. The Storm are yet to lose at home this year with a 6-0 record. The Storm have the best NRL line betting results in the league with a 9-2 (+$655) record while against the head to head odds they are showing a profit of +$321.6. Melbourne's last 4 games have seen them defeat NZ (22-12), BRI (34-10) and PEN (44-10) and suffer their only loss of the season to CRO (10-12). In Melbourne Line Up changes Will Chambers is out, Gareth Widdop will fill in for Billy Slater, Rory Kostjasyn will take over from Cooper Cronk and Ryan Hinchcliffe will be filling the shoes of Cameron Smith.

Wests Tigers: The Tigers have recovered from a shaky start to the season and now find themselves sitting in 4th place with a 7-5 record. They have averaged 21.58 points per game in attack and allowed 18.58 in defense for a point's differential of +3. Betting results for the Tigers against the head to head odds sees them with a 7-5 (-$154) record and against the Line Handicap they are 5-6 (-$125). In recent NRL scores and results the Tigers have had wins against Canberra (40-0), North Queensland (26-18), New Zealand (24-22) and the Gold Coast (15-14). The Tigers line up sees Tom Humble replace Robbie Farah while on Origin duty.

Melbourne v Wests Margin Odds: The winning margin market as always sees differing odds amongst the top NRL bookmakers. Currently we see prices for Melbourne to win by 1-12 points between $3.75 up to $4.00, Melbourne by 13+ $6.40 up to $7.60 and for the Tigers to get their first win in Melbourne from 9 attempts by 1-12 points $2.85 up to $3.10 or Tigers by 13+ $2.70 up to $2.80 with the draw at $26.

NRL Betting History Melbourne v Wests Round 14, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
16/03/07 1.24 -12 Melbourne 18 V 16 Wests 12 4.66
05/05/07 2.72 6 Wests 30 V 12 Melbourne -6 1.53
14/07/08 3.28 8.5 Wests 18 V 30 Melbourne -8.5 1.39
20/04/09 2.99 6.5 Wests 16 V 6 Melbourne -6.5 1.44
21/06/09 1.55 -5 Melbourne 14 V 12 Wests 5 2.65
29/08/10 1.51 -6 Wests 26 V 14 Melbourne 6 2.75
19/06/11 1.71 -3.5 Wests 4 V 12 Melbourne 3.5 2.27

History - Melbourne v Wests: A quick look at the betting history between these two teams sees that over the last 5 regular seasons Melbourne have won 4 games to the tigers 3 wins. The home v away record is 5-2 and the favourite v underdog is 4-3. The winning team has managed to cover the line handicap bet 5-2 and the average game total is 32.57 points.

The Prediction - Here at we like to tread carefully at this time of the season, with Origin players missing we will be leaving this game alone. If we were to bet based on opinion and not tested statistical modeling then we would probably look closely at the under bet in the totals market here, you would have to think it would be difficult for the Storm to score to many points without their 3 stars while their solid defense should still hold up pretty well.