New Zealand v Melbourne

NRL Round 13, 2012 -

WarriorsStorm

The New Zealand Warriors take on the all conquering Melbourne Storm on home soi l in NRL Round 13, Sunday 4.00pm. Comparing the bookmakers Live NRL Odds we see that the Warriors are trading between $2.4 up to $2.53 and the Storm are between $1.55 up to $1.59. The line handicap sees most bookmakers running a line of New Zealand +4 Melbourne -4 with +/-3.5 also available.

New Zealand: The Warriors are sitting in 9th spot on the ladder with a 5-6 record, having averaged 23.64 points per game while conceding 24.18 for a negative differential of -.54. New Zealand are coming off the bye with their previous 3 matches being a loss to the Tigers (22-24), and wins over the Roosters (30-26) and Broncos (30-20). In NRL betting results the Warriors are 4-7 (-$320) against the line handicap and they are -$288.60 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week). The New Zealand line up sees Michael Luck, Jerome Ropati and Nathan Friend all sidelined however the late mail suggests that Michael Luck may still be a chance of playing.

Melbourne Storm: Craig Bellamy's Melbourne side are coming off a 34-10 win over Brisbane which took their season record to 10-1. Sitting atop the ladder the Storm are averaging an impressive 30 points per game while conceding an even more impressive 11.91 points per game, which gives them a differential of +18.09. Melbourne's other recent matches have seen them beat the Panthers (44-10) and lose their only match of the season to the Sharks (10-12). In NRL betting results Melbourne's 10 wins have produced a +$321.6 profit against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week) and they have the best record in the competition against the line handicap with 9-2 (+$655). The Storm's line up is without Sika Manu, Kevin Procter and Siosaia Vave with late mail suggesting Michael Greenfield will also be out with a neck injury.

New Zealand v Melbourne Winning Margin Odds: Comparing odds at the leading Online Bookmakers we see that prices for New Zealand to win by 1-12 points range between $3.70 up to $3.75, New Zealand by 13+ $5.60 up to $6.40 and for the Melbourne Storm to win by 1-12 points $2.90 up to $3.05 and for the Storm by 13+ $2.95 up to $3.15 while the draw is $26.

NRL Betting History New Zealand v Melbourne Round 13, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
01/04/07 1.47 -7.5 Melbourne 30 V 12 New Zealand 7.5 2.92
10/06/07 1.61 -4.5 New Zealand 2 V 4 Melbourne 4.5 2.48
17/03/08 1.31 -10.5 Melbourne 32 V 18 New Zealand 10.5 3.8
27/07/08 3.28 8 New Zealand 8 V 6 Melbourne -8 1.39
25/04/09 1.5 -6 Melbourne 14 V 14 New Zealand 6 2.8
05/09/09 3.33 8.5 New Zealand 0 V 30 Melbourne -8.5 1.38
25/04/10 1.31 -10 Melbourne 40 V 6 New Zealand 10 3.85
17/07/10 1.71 -3 New Zealand 13 V 6 Melbourne 3 2.27
25/04/11 1.29 -10.5 Melbourne 14 V 18 New Zealand 10.5 3.97
26/06/11 2.04 0 New Zealand 8 V 16 Melbourne 0 1.87
25/04/12 1.47 -6.5 Melbourne 32 V 14 New Zealand 6.5 2.95

New Zealand v Melbourne History: The record over the last 11 regular season games sees Melbourne holding the advantage 7-3-1. The home team has won 6 to the away teams 4 and the starting favourite has won 7-3-1. The average game total is a low 30.64 points. The last regular season meeting was in round 8 this year when the Storm won by 18 points (32-14) as home favourites $1.47 (-6.5).

The Prediction - The BetonFooty.com.au handicapping numbers are right in line with those that the bookmakers have posted so from a betting perspective we don't see any value in the H2H or Line market. As always we will keep an eye out for the over under total line once it has been released.