Gold Coast v North Queensland

NRL Round 13, 2012 -


The Gold Coast Titans are looking to make it 3 wins in a row as they welcome the North Queensland Cowboys to Skilled Park, Friday 7.35pm. Can the Titans make it 3 in a row? Well there must be some money out there that believes they can as their odds have steadily been dropping during the week. Gold Coast opened the week at $2.50 with the Cowboys at $1.53 and the line was +4.5, currently our Live NRL Odds show that the Gold Coast are trading between $2.28 up to $2.3 and North Queensland have moved out to between $1.63 to $1.699. The line handicap market has seen the line drop to between +/-2.5 up to +/-3.5.

Gold Coast: A couple of wins on the trot can start to breed a new found confidence into a team and that is where the Titans find themselves. Now sitting in 12th spot with a 4-7 record the Gold Coast have averaged 15.36 points per game while allowing 19.18 for a -3.82 points differential. Somewhat surprisingly the Titans 4 wins have all been on the road and with a 0-5 home record they are still looking to give their home fans something to cheer about, however one home game was played at Suncorp so they are 0-4 at Skilled Park. In NRL Line Betting Results the Gold Coast are 5-6 (-$125) for the season and they are +$270 against the head to head odds. The Gold Coast have named an unchanged line up from the side that defeated Newcastle (24-14) last week as $2.62 (+5.5) underdogs.

North Queensland: The Cowboys had their chances last week but in the end it was the Tigers who got the points with a (26-18) win. That was the Cowboys 5th loss giving them a 7-5 record. They have a point’s differential of +6.5 due to scoring an average of 25 points per game while allowing 18.5. In betting results the Cowboys are 6-6 (-$30) against the line handicap and they are ranked 5th against the head to head odds with a profit of +$123.30. North Queensland's line up sees just the one change with Tariq Sims out for the season, Corey Paterson has been added as 18th man.

Gold Coast v North Queensland Winning Margin Odds: In the winning margin market we see that prices for the Gold Coast to win by 1-12 points vary between $3.50 up to $3.55, Gold Coast by 13+ $5.25 up to $5.75 and for the Cowboys to win by 1-12 points the odds range between $2.95 up to $3.10, Cowboys by 13+ $3.25 up $3.45 and the draw is at $26.

NRL Betting History Gold Coast v North Queensland Round 13, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
07/05/07 2.08 0 Gold Coast 10 V 24 North Queensland 0 1.85
14/03/08 1.92 -1 Gold Coast 36 V 18 North Queensland 1 1.99
16/08/08 1.39 -8.5 North Queensland 20 V 26 Gold Coast 8.5 3.28
11/04/09 1.69 -3.5 North Queensland 10 V 14 Gold Coast 3.5 2.33
31/07/09 1.5 -5.5 Gold Coast 18 V 34 North Queensland 5.5 2.81
03/04/10 1.58 -4.5 North Queensland 32 V 18 Gold Coast 4.5 2.56
14/08/10 1.21 -14 Gold Coast 37 V 18 North Queensland 14 5.12
08/04/11 1.51 6 North Queensland 22 V 12 Gold Coast -6 2.75
23/07/11 1.93 0 Gold Coast 20 V 28 North Queensland 0 1.98
03/03/12 1.48 -6 North Queensland 0 V 18 Gold Coast 6 2.88

Gold Coast v North Queensland History: The last 10 regular season games between the Titans and Cowboys has seen 5 wins apiece. The home v away record is 4-6 and the starting favourite has won 5 and lost 5. The line handicap has not really come into play as the team who has won outright has also covered the handicap 10-0. The average game total is 41.5 points and their last meeting was in round 1 this year where the Titans as $2.88 (+6) road underdogs held the Cowboys scoreless in a (18-0) victory.

The Prediction - Despite the Titans improved form our handicapping numbers here at pretty much agree with odds and lines that bookies have posted. We will keep an eye on just how far the Cowboys drift in the market however as it stands at this stage there are no plays here for us.

UPDATE: The over under total opened at O/U40.5 with who was one of the first bookies to post a line. With the very wet weather up on the Coast we like the under here and jumped on the U 40.5 at $1.92. We would expect the total line to close somewhat lower than 40.5.