St George Illawarra takes on the Parramatta Eels in NRL Round 12, 7.30pm Saturday. The Dragons current head to head odds range between $1.39 up to $1.43 while the Eels are trading between $2.90 up to $3.10. The Line Handicap opened the week at Dragons -6 Eels +6 however current NRL Odds and Lines show that most bookmakers have moved the line to St George -7.5 Parramatta +7.5. With the early over under total being O/U38.5 the bookmaker numbers are approximating the Dragons to score 23 points to the Eels 15.5.
St George Illawarra Dragons: The Dragons suffered a narrow one point loss to the Rabbitohs last week in a game where they found themselves heavily undermanned, particularly in the forwards. A raft of injuries, a suspension and origin commitments have all added to St George's woes over the last few weeks who now find themselves sitting in 11th place with a 5-6 record. St George Illawarra's most recent team list sees them welcome back Beau Scott, Ben Creagh and Trent Merrin for this game. Despite the Dragons below par start to the season the (18-19) loss to South Sydney last week was their first loss at home this season, where they have a 4-1 record to date. Looking at points differential we see that St George have averaged 15.27 points per game while allowing an average of 17.45 for a differential of -2.18. In NRL betting results the Dragons are 4-7 (-$320) against the line handicap and -$174 against the head to head odds.
Parramatta Eels: Parramatta's last outing was against the Raiders in round 10 where they went down (32-40) in the nations capital, with Stephen Kearney's side having the bye last week. Parramatta holds down last place on the ladder with a 1-9 record having averaged 16.7 points per game while conceding an average of 31 for a -14.3 points differential. In NRL betting results as one can imagine the Eels have not performed well showing a 2-6-2 (-$410) record against the Line Handicap and -$648 against the money line odds. In NRL Results Parramatta's lone victory this season was against Manly in round 5 (29-20) where they started as $3.52 (+9) favourites.
Winning Margin Odds for Dragons v Eels: In the winning margin betting market we see that currently the best odds from the leading Bookmakers for St George by 1-12 points is $3.10 and for the Dragons by 13+ is $2.62 while for the Parramatta to get the upset win by 1-12 points you can get odds of $4.57 and for the Eels by 13+ $8.75. The best price for the draw option, which by the way was winning pick last time these two teams met, is $31.50.
|17/06/07||1.26||-12||Parramatta||20||12||St. George Illawarra||12||4.35|
|27/08/07||2.89||6.5||St. George Illawarra||14||6||Parramatta||-6.5||1.47|
|11/05/08||1.63||-4.5||Parramatta||19||18||St. George Illawarra||4.5||2.43|
|30/08/08||1.42||-8||St. George Illawarra||40||14||Parramatta||8||3.14|
|10/04/09||2.58||6||Parramatta||8||22||St. George Illawarra||-6||1.58|
|04/09/09||1.95||-1.5||St. George Illawarra||37||0||Parramatta||1.5||1.95|
|12/03/10||1.8||-2||Parramatta||12||18||St. George Illawarra||2||2.15|
|28/05/10||1.56||-5.5||St. George Illawarra||30||0||Parramatta||5.5||2.61|
|01/05/11||1.18||-14.5||St. George Illawarra||30||0||Parramatta||14.5||5.61|
|03/06/11||4.05||10||Parramatta||14||14||St. George Illawarra||-10||1.29|
St George Illawarra v Parramatta History: Having met 10 times in regular season games over the 5 seasons it is the Dragons who hold the advantage 7-2-1. In fact looking at the home v away and favourite v underdog the results are both 7-2-1. Likewise the team who has won outright has also covered the line handicap 7-2-1. Overall these match ups have seen low scoring totals with the average game total being 32.8 points.
The Prediction - Our handicapping here at BetonFooty.com.au indicates value on the Dragons against the line handicap. We got in a few days ago and backed St George Illawarra at -6 $1.90 not wanting to wait to see the number go above 6. We would not go any further than 6 points on this game so at the current line we would leave it out. Where possible it is always best to get on the right side of key numbers when making your NRL bets and as per our data around 6.35% of all games end with a margin of 6 points. You can read more on key numbers at our NRL Betting Lines article.