Newcastle v Gold Coast

NRL Round 12, 2012 -


The Newcastle Knights are favourites for their clash with the Gold Coast Titans in NRL Round 12. The head to head market opened the week with Newcastle at odds of $1.55 and the Gold Coast $2.47. Movement has seen Newcastle tighten as favourites with current NRL Odds seeing them trading between $1.50 up to $1.55 while the Titans are between $2.50 up to $2.66. The Line Handicap is currently sitting at Newcastle -5.5 Gold Coast +5.5 and the over under total line is O/U39.5.

Newcastle Knights: It hasn't been the fairy tale season that many expected from Wayne Bennett's Newcastle Knights, with 4 wins and 6 losses to their name. Sitting in 10th spot on the ladder the Knights have averaged 15.4 points per game and conceded 17.3 for a differential of -1.9. The Knights have not performed as well without Kurt Gidley who is out for the season, if you adjust their point’s differential for games played without Gidley you get -8.70. In NRL betting results the Newcastle side are 4-6 (-$220) against the line handicap bet and -$266 against the head to head odds. In Newcastle line up news Akuila Uate is in doubt for this game however Darius Boyd should return from Origin duties and Danny Buderus is expected to make his return from injury.

Gold Coast Titans: The Titans had the bye last week with their last start being a (25-14) win over the Bulldogs, a game where they started as $4.10 (+11.5) underdogs. The Titans are in 14th place on the ladder with a 3-7 record. They have averaged 14.5 points per game while allowing an average of 19.7 for a -5.20 differential. In NRL betting results the Gold Coast are +$108 against the head to head odd for $100 bets each week and they have a 4-6 (-$220) against the line handicap.

NRL Betting History Newcastle v Gold Coast Round 12, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
23/06/07 1.61 -4.5 Gold Coast 28 V 22 Newcastle 4.5 2.5
03/05/08 1.83 0 Newcastle 13 V 12 Gold Coast 0 2.11
11/08/08 2.72 6.5 Gold Coast 12 V 32 Newcastle -6.5 1.47
15/03/09 1.47 -7.5 Gold Coast 34 V 20 Newcastle 7.5 2.89
10/05/09 1.64 -4 Newcastle 23 V 18 Gold Coast 4 2.42
09/05/10 1.91 0 Newcastle 36 V 38 Gold Coast 0 2
27/06/10 1.5 -6 Gold Coast 16 V 24 Newcastle 6 2.7
31/07/11 1.39 -11.5 Newcastle 50 V 20 Gold Coast 11.5 3.28

Newcastle v Gold Coast History: Eight regular season games over the past 5 years has seen Newcastle win 5 games to the Gold Coasts 3. The home v away record is 5-3 and the favourite v underdog is 6-2. The team who has won straight up has also covered the line handicap in all games 8-0. The average game total is 49.75 points.

The Prediction - here at the opening numbers posted by the bookies did not vary enough from ours to warrant a play. The line and odds movement has caught our attention with our numbers showing a play on the Titans against the line handicap. The +5.5 line is not really any different to the opening +4.5 in our opinion so we have bought an extra point and taken the Gold Coast +6.5 points at $1.81.