Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

NRL Round 12, 2012 -


After the bye and a loss the Melbourne Storm look to get back to their winning ways when they host the Brisbane Broncos in NRL Round 12. The latest NRL Odds and Lines sees Melbourne trading between $1.476 up to $1.50 in the head to head market while Brisbane are between $2.65 up to $2.88. The Line Handicap opened between -5.5 to -6 and for the moment seems to have settled at Melbourne -6 Brisbane +6.

The Melbourne Storm: Melbourne suffered their first loss of the season in round 10 against the Cronulla Sharks, going down by 12 points to 10. They had the bye last week and while their origin stars are set to back up the rest of the squad should be well rested and ready for this top of the table clash. Melbourne is 1st on the ladder with a 9-1 record having averaged 29.6 points per game while allowing an average of 12.1 for a +17.50 differential. In NRL betting results the Storm have been the best in the league against the line handicap bet, having an 8-2 +$550 record (for $100 bets each week) while against the head to head odds they are showing a profit of +$274 as per our NRL Odds Results.

Brisbane Broncos: Brisbane are in 2nd position on the ladder with 7 wins and 3 losses. They have averaged 23.2 points per game in attack while allowing an average of 15.6 in defense for a differential of +7.6. Brisbane coach Anthony Griffin is sticking with the Broncos philosophy of resting Origin players and is set to rest Justin Hodges, Sam Thaiday and Petro Civoniceva but has named Matt Gillett and Ben Hannant in the side to take on the Storm. Against the NRL Line Handicap bet the Broncos have a 6-3-1 record +$270 and against the head to head odds they are showing a profit of +$112.

Storm v Broncos Winning Margin Odds: It is sometimes surprising just how much the odds in the winning margin market can differ amongst the leading Bookmakers. Comparing odds we see that currently for Melbourne to win by 1-12 points the odds range between $2.85 up to $3.10 and for Melbourne by 13+ odds are between $2.69 up to $2.95. If you like Brisbane to cause the upset by 1-12 points the odds range between $3.75 up to $4.00 and for the Broncos by 13+ $6.40 up to $7.25 and if you like the chances of a draw you can odds of $26.

NRL Betting History Melbourne v Brisbane Round 12, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
27/04/07 2.22 2.5 Brisbane 18 V 28 Melbourne -2.5 1.75
12/08/07 1.17 -16 Melbourne 14 V 6 Brisbane 16 5.5
04/04/08 1.55 -4.5 Melbourne 28 V 8 Brisbane 4.5 2.65
20/03/09 1.61 -4 Brisbane 16 V 14 Melbourne 4 2.5
05/06/09 1.59 -4.5 Melbourne 48 V 4 Brisbane 4.5 2.4
09/05/10 1.19 -14 Melbourne 14 V 36 Brisbane 14 5.39
07/05/11 2.73 5.5 Brisbane 22 V 29 Melbourne -5.5 1.52
22/07/11 1.56 -4 Melbourne 26 V 6 Brisbane 4 2.59

Melbourne v Brisbane History: Melbourne and Brisbane have played 8 times in regular season play over the past 5 seasons with Melbourne leading 6-2. In those games the home v away record is 5-3, favourite v underdog is 7-1 and the team who has won straight up has also covered the line handicap 6-2. The average game total is 39.63 points. The last regular season game between these two teams saw Melbourne start as $1.56 (-4) home favourites in a game they won 26-6, covering the line by 16 points.

The Prediction - Our handicapping numbers here at show value on the Storm. We have backed Melbourne in the head to head market at odds of $1.50 and we have taken them against the line handicap at -5.5 points. We have our numbers for the over under total and with rain expected in Melbourne we will be interested in seeing the number that the bookies post.