North Queensland v Penrith

NRL Round 11, 2012 -


North Queensland opened the week as $1.57 (-4.5) home favourites for their clash with the Penrith Panthers. The Cowboy's odds have been coming in, with the latest NRL Odds seeing North Queensland between $1.48 up to $1.50 in the head to head market while Penrith are between $2.67 up to $2.86. The line handicap has moved from the opening -/+4.5 to currently sit at North Queensland -6 Penrith +6 and the early over under total is O/U 42.

North Queensland: The Cowboys are currently sitting in 4th spot on the ladder with 6 wins and 4 losses. They have averaged 25.2 points per game while allowing an average of 16.8 for a +8.4 differential. In NRL betting results the Cowboys are 6-4 (+$170) against the line handicap bet and +$170.40 against the head to head odds. In recent NRL Results North Queensland have defeated Newcastle (32-12), St George Illawarra (30-6) and Sydney (50-12) and lost to South Sydeny (16-20).

The Penrith Panthers: Penrith got their 3rd win of the season last week with a golden point field goal by Lachlan Coote sealing the victory over the Dragons (13-12). That win took the Panthers to a 3-7 record and has them sitting in 15th place coming into round 11. Having averaged only 14.6 points per game while conceding an average of 23.3 the Panthers have a negative point’s differential of -8.7 points per game. NRL betting results for Penrith see them with a 3-7 (-$415) record against the line handicap and -$188 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week).

In and Out: North Queensland are without Jonathan Thurston, Matt Scott, James Tamou and Brent Tate (Origin Duty) with Ricky Thorby to face a fitness test for a rib complaint. Penrith have Luke Lewis and Michael Jennings on Origin Duty, Cameron Ciraldo is in doubt while Luke Walsh my make an early return for this game.

NRL Betting History North Queensland v Penrith Round 11, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
12/05/07 1.29 -10.5 North Queensland 12 V 22 Penrith 10.5 4
13/08/07 1.94 0 Penrith 26 V 30 North Queensland 0 1.96
31/05/08 1.56 -5.5 North Queensland 18 V 19 Penrith 5.5 2.62
25/07/09 1.4 -8 North Queensland 20 V 28 Penrith 8 3.24
20/03/10 1.71 -3 North Queensland 28 V 20 Penrith 3 2.29
30/07/10 1.26 -11.5 Penrith 24 V 16 North Queensland 11.5 4.34
26/06/11 1.63 -2.5 Penrith 30 V 20 North Queensland 2.5 2.43
30/07/11 1.69 -2.5 North Queensland 30 V 18 Penrith 2.5 2.31

Betting History - North Queensland v Penrith: Over the last 5 regular seasons North Queensland have won 3 to Penrith's 5. The home v away record is 4-4, so too the favourite v underdog (4-4). The team who wins straight up has also covered the line handicap 7-1 and the average game total is 45.13 points. Their last encounter saw the Cowboys win by (30-18) as home favourites at odds of $1.66 and cover the line handicap of -2.5.

The Prediction -'s handicapping numbers show value on the Cowboys here. We got in and took the Cowboys in the head to head odds market at $1.524 and in the line handicap market at -5.5 points. The current over under total line of 42 is pretty much in agreement with our number, so no play there.