Sudden death NRL footy this weekend! With Canterbury and Melbourne both showing their class last weekend and getting the rest, we are left with four teams trying to keep their finals aspirations going. First up is the Manly Sea Eagles v North Queensland Cowboys clash on Friday night from Allianz Stadium followed by South Sydney Rabbitohs hosting the Canberra Raiders on Saturday Night.
The current Head to Head market for this game sees bookies rating both teams chances as nearly even. Live NRL Odds Comparisons show Manly trading between $1.89 up to $1.934 while North Queensland are priced between $1.91 up to $1.97. The bookmakers that are posting a Line Handicap have it set at Manly -.5 North Queensland +.5 and the early over under total line is between O/U37.5 and O/U38.5. Despite this game being a home final for the Sea Eagles the venue is not their beloved Brookvale oval but rather Allianz Stadium. The Sea Eagles are forced to move their final to a larger venue which is the same situation they found themselves in last year. On that occasion the crowd numbers only reached 14,000 and it is speculated that there may be even fewer for Friday night’s game. For Manly though, the non home field issue is probably the least of their worries following their 6 point loss to Canterbury last week (10-16), as $1.75 (-2.5) favourites. North Queensland on the other hand are coming off a 33 to 16 win as $1.48 (-6.5) favourites over the Broncos in a game where the Cowboys controlled proceedings from the opening minutes.
First Try Scorer Market: There are hundreds of betting options available on each of the NRL finals games. One that is popular is the First Try Scorer market. The bookmakers also love it with their higher margins there is more money to be made so it is little wonder why these types of bets are so heavily pushed. If you do fancy a punt on the 1st try scorer some of the favourites are Brett Stewart who is priced between $9.00 up to $10.00, Jorge Taufu $9.00 up to $13.00 and Matthew Bowen $9.00 up to $12.00 while the player who scored first in their last encounter Kieran Foran is priced between $19 up to $21. The score on that occasion which was back in round 22 this season was Cowboys 6 Sea Eagles 8.
The Prediction - Our numbers suggest North Queensland by 2 points if you take away Manly's home field advantage for not playing at Brookvale. The bookies lines however are not offering enough value for us to make a play.
The bookies odds are giving South Sydney around a 70% chance of ending the Green Machines run on Saturday night. To do so they will need to overcome a confident Canberra outfit that has been scoring plenty of points of late. Current odds see South Sydney priced between $1.41 up to $1.425 while Canberra range between $2.95 up to $3.10. The Line Handicap has been set at South Sydney -7.5 Canberra +7.5 and the over under total line is O/U 42. Souths never looked comfortable last week with their mistakes and penalties making life all too easy for the well drilled Storm outfit, the final scoreline read (6-24). Canberra on the other hand went into their clash with the Sharks as $1.66 (-3.5) favourites and they did not disappoint their loyal supporters, running out comfortable 34-16 winners.
The Prediction - BetonFooty.com.au's numbers agree with the bookies and we don't see enough value either way to make a play. On current form and confidence you would have to give Raiders a shot at causing the upset here.