NRL Betting - Head to Head Odds

One of the most common bet types in rugby league football is the NRL head to head odds, also known as moneyline odds or simply NRL odds. This bet is simply the odds on which team will win the game. It is a straightforward bet for footy punters, pick the winner and you win the bet. Most Australian based bookmakers and those included in BetonFooty.com.au's Online Bookmaker Review section will display NRL odds which includes extra time, while some European bookmakers will display odds for 80 minutes only and include the odds for a draw.

An example of how NRL head to head odds would be presented at a bookmaker :
Melbourne Storm - 1.43
South Sydney Rabbitohs - 3.08

The above odds are a reflection of each teams percentage chance displayed as decimal odds as set by the bookmaker. To calculate each teams percentage you would use the following calculation, (100/decimal odds), so for the Storm 100/1.43 = 69.93% and the Rabbitohs 100/3.08 = 32.47%. These percentages add up to more than 100% because they include a bookmaker commission. To calculate the true percentages without commission we need to deduct the commission by calculating the bookmaker's payout share. Simply add the percentages 69.93 + 32.47 = 102.4 then payout share equals 100/102.4 = 97.65%. Lastly you multiply the original percentages by the payout share, Storm 69.93 X 97.65% = 68.29%, Rabbitohs 32.47% X 97.65% = 31.71%.

It is important to have an understanding of the NRL odds and know how to read them. For instance a bettor who regularly bets on lower priced NRL favourites at odds of $1.55 needs to win over 64.52% of his bets to just break even. Whereas a punter who regularly backs underdogs at odds of $2.80 need only win 35.71% of the time to break even.

The following table shows the true win percentage of various NRL odds.

NRL Odds - Win Percentage Table
Odds Win % Odds Win % Odds Win % Odds Win %
$1.15 86.96% $1.75 57.14% $2.35 42.55% $2.95 33.9%
$1.2 83.33% $1.8 55.56% $2.4 41.67% $3 33.33%
$1.25 80% $1.85 54.05% $2.45 40.82% $3.05 32.79%
$1.3 76.92% $1.9 52.63% $2.5 40% $3.1 32.26%
$1.35 74.07% $1.95 51.28% $2.55 39.22% $3.15 31.75%
$1.4 71.43% $2 50% $2.6 38.46% $3.2 31.25%
$1.45 68.97% $2.05 48.78% $2.65 37.74% $3.25 30.77%
$1.5 66.67% $2.1 47.62% $2.7 37.04% $3.3 30.3%
$1.55 64.52% $2.15 46.51% $2.75 36.36% $3.35 29.85%
$1.6 62.5% $2.2 45.45% $2.8 35.71% $3.4 29.41%
$1.65 60.61% $2.25 44.44% $2.85 35.09% $3.45 28.99%
$1.7 58.82% $2.3 43.48% $2.9 34.48% $3.5 28.57%

The "NRL Favourites and Underdogs Win Percentage Table" below shows how the NRL odds favourites and underdogs have performed over the last 5 years overall, home and away. We can see that on average NRL favourites in general have won 62.57% of the time over the last 5 seasons with the highest overall winning year being 2011 with 65.63%. Breaking the favourites down by home and away we see that on average home favourites have won 67.03% of the time from 2007 to 2011 while away favourites have averaged 58.11%.

As far as NRL underdogs are concerned, they have won on average 37.43% of the time since 2007 with the yearly range being between 34.37% to 40.77%. Home underdogs over the past 5 years have won on average 41.89% with 2008 the only year to dip below the 40% mark. As would be expected on the road the NRL underdogs results drop down to an average of 32.97% however the win percentage range has fluctuated over the years with the range going as low as 28.12% up to 37.98%.

NRL Favourites and Underdogs Win Percentage Table
Year Home Fav Away Fav Fav Avg Home Dog Away Dog Dog Avg
2007 62.02% 57.41% 59.58% 42.86% 37.98% 40.42%
2008 68.46% 60.66% 64.56% 39.34% 31.54% 35.44%
2009 70.77% 56.90% 63.84% 43.10% 29.23% 36.17%
2010 62.02% 56.45% 59.24% 43.55% 37.98% 40.77%
2011 71.88% 59.38% 65.63% 40.62% 28.12% 34.37%
07 - 11 67.03% 58.11% 62.57% 41.89% 32.97% 37.43%

If you are in a work or social NRL tipping competition then taking the above statistics you could blindly select the NRL head to head odds favourite in each game each week by checking out NRL Odds page and you could expect to be correct around 60% of the time. With 192 games in the regular season that would give around 115 points which would more than likely keep you well in contention. In fact around 115 points would put you in about the top 10% of tipsters at the major online footy tipping sites.