AFL Round 9, 2012 -
AFL Friday Night Footy sees the Western Bulldogs playing host to the Geelong Cats at Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm. The bookmakers current AFL Odds see the Western Bulldogs as underdogs with their head to head odds ranging between $5.00 up to $5.68 while Geelong are trading between $1.16 up to $1.18. In the line handicap betting the bookmakers have set the line at Western Bulldogs +30.5 Geelong -30.5, with +/-31.5 also available.
Western Bulldogs: Sitting in 11th place on the ladder the Western Bulldogs have a 4-4 record, having averaged 23.5 scoring shots per game while allowing 23.23, for a scoring shots differential of +.37. In AFL Results Brendan McCartney's side have had wins over the teams they were expected to beat in MEL (88-67), GWS (104-62) and GC (72-34) and over NTH MEL (101-83) as underdogs. The Bulldogs loses have been against WC (87-136), ADE (64-82), STK (40-103) and COL (77-98). In AFL betting results the Western Bulldogs are 5-3 (+$175) against the line handicap having covered the line against ADE, MEL, COL, NTH MEL and GC while against the head to head odds they are showing a loss of -$142.50 (for $100 bets each week).
Geelong Cats: The Cats are still yet to win the contested possession battle in any game this season and despite a concerted effort in this area last week they still fell short against Collingwood by 10 (contested possessions). Overall Geelong is in 10th position having averaged 25.75 scoring shots per game while conceding an average of 24.5 for a differential of +1.25. The Cats are 4-4 for the season with wins over HAW (92-90), RICH (75-65), BRI (79-41) and MEL (119-76) while they have gone down to FRE (101-105), NTH MEL (114-131), ADE (72-122) and COL (84-96). In AFL betting results against the line handicap Geelong are 2-6 (-$410) and against the head to head odds they are -$183.30.
Western Bulldogs v Geelong Winning Margin Odds: A scan of the leading Bookmakers odds for the winning margin market shows that currently the highest odds for the Western Bulldogs to win by 1-39 points is $5.50 and for Western Bulldogs by 40+ points is $34. If you fancy Geelong to get up by 1-39 points you can get odds of $2.30 and for Geelong by 40+ $2.42 while the draw outcome is at $71.
Western Bulldogs v Geelong Cats History: Having met 7 times in regular season games over the past 5 seasons it is Geelong who has won the battle more often than not holding a 5-2 advantage. The average game total over this period is 214.29 points. The home v away record is 6-1, so too the favourite v underdog (6-1) and the team which has won outright covered the line handicap 6-1. The last meeting saw Geelong dominate with a 61 point victory (148-87) having started the game as $1.11 (-41.5) favourites.
The Prediction - Our numbers here at BetonFooty.com.au show sufficient value to warrant a play on the Western Bulldogs against the Line. We have taken the Bulldogs at +31.5 at $1.92.