AFL Round 9, 2012 -
The St Kilda Saints host the Sydney Swans in AFL Round 9 at Etihad Stadium, Saturday 4.40pm. The bookies have this as fairly evenly matched with the latest AFL Odds seeing St Kilda between $1.961 up to $2.00 while Sydney's head to head odds range between $1.80 up to $1.943. In the AFL Line Handicap market Centrebet and Sportsbet.com.au are running a line of Saints +2.5 Swans -2.5 while luxbet has their line sitting at +/-1.5.
St Kilda: The Saints are sitting in 9th place with a 4-4 record having averaged 25.63 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 22.63 for a differential of +3 scoring shots per game. In AFL Results St Kilda have had wins against the Blues (122-98), Demons (84-66), Bulldogs (103-40) and Suns (139-47) while their losses have been against the Eagles (91-121), Hawks (88-123), Dockers (79-92) and Power (85-89). In AFL betting results thus far the Saints are 3-5 (-$215) against the line handicap and -$12.89 against the head to head odds.
The Sydney Swans: The Swans got back to their winning ways last week with a 101 point win over the Demons. That took the Swans to 6-2 record, seeing them in 4th spot on the ladder. Sydney's two losses have been against RICH (62-91) and ADE (94-99) with the rest of the season having been smooth sailing with wins over GWS (100-37), FRE (94-81), PORT (105-83), NTH MEL (113-77 and MEL (138-37). The Swans have performed well against the major AFL betting markets as well with a 5-3 (+$175) record against the line handicap and they are +$285 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week). Sydney have averaged 26.50 scoring shots per game while allowing 20.50 for a differential of +6.
St Kilda v Sydney Winning Margin Odds: In the winning margin market for this game we see that a quick scan of the Leading Bookmakers shows that currently the highest odds for St Kilda to win by 1-39 points is $2.75 and for St Kilda by 40+ is $7.50 while for Sydney to get up by 1-39 points the odds are $2.60 and for the Swans by 40+ $6.25 while the draw option is at $51.
|28/03/09||1.38||-18.5||St Kilda Kilda||80||65||Sydney||18.5||3.28|
Saints v Swans Betting History: Having played a total of 8 regular season games over the past five seasons, it is St Kilda who hold the edge 5-3. The home team has won 6 to the visitors 2 and the starting favourite v underdog record is 6-2. The team who wins straight up has covered the line handicap 4-4 and the average game total over this period is 156.38 points.
The Prediction - BetonFooty.com.au's handicapping numbers show value on the Saints here. We have taken St Kilda at odds of $2.02 in the head to head odds market.