AFL Round 9, 2012 -
The 10th placed North Melbourne Kangaroos host the 14th placed Brisbane Lions in AFL round 9. Bookmakers opened the week with the Kangaroos at $1.28 (-23.5) and the Lions $3.95 (+23.50), with current AFL Odds showing that North Melbourne have tighten as favourites with their head to head odds now ranging between $1.24 up to $1.26 while Brisbane are between $4.00 up to $4.45. The Line Handicap seems to have settled at Kangaroos -26.5 Lions +26.5.
North Melbourne: The Kangaroos are coming off two disappointing losses, last weeks 2 point loss to the Power (93-95) and two weeks ago to the Bulldogs (83-101). Both games they started as favourites $1.51 (-15.50) and $1.4 (-16.5) respectively, with their last quarter effort against Port Adelaide surely a big concern for coach Brad Scott. The Kangaroos are 3-5 for the season having averaged 29.5 scoring shots per game while allowing 28 for a differential of +1.5 scoring shots per game. In AFL betting results North Melbourne are 4-4 (-$20) against the line handicap and they are -$120.30 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week).
Brisbane Lions: The Lions racked up a big win over GWS last week (132-40) taking their record to 3-5 for the season. Brisbane's other wins have been against the Suns and the Demons. Having averaged 22.63 scoring shots per game while conceding an average of 25.13, the Lions differential is -2.5 scoring shots per game. Against the line handicap the Lions are 4-4 (-$20) and against the AFL head to head odds they are -$248.10.
North Melburne v Brisbane Winning Margin Odds: Currently the best odds from the leading Online Bookmakers are North Melbourne to win by 1-39 points $2.25 (sportsbet.com.au), North Melbourne by 40+ $2.75 (Pinnacle) and for Brisbane by 1-39 points $4.75 (Pinnacle), Brisbane Lions by 40+ $23.50 (Pinnacle) while the draw option is up to $67.
The Prediction - Our handicapping numbers show value on North Melbourne against the line handicap. Here at BetonFooty.com.au we got in early and backed the Kangaroos at -23.5 points. While the line has moved a little since then our numbers show that the current line is still worth a play.