AFL Round 9, 2012 -
Carlton takes on Melbourne at the MCG this afternoon. The latest AFL Odds see Carlton between $1.04 up to $1.06, while Melbourne are at odds of between $9.5 up to $12.55 to get their first win of the season. The Line handicap market opened the week with the Blues -55.5 Demons +55.5 points however that line has come in a little to currently range between -/+49.5 up to -/+51.5. The over under total is trading at around O/U180.5 points.
Carlton: The Blues have averaged 27.88 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 22.63 for a differential of +5.25. They are sitting in 7th spot on the ladder with a 5-3 record and are coming off a 69 point thumping by the Crows last week. In AFL betting results the Blues are 4-4 (-$20) against the line handicap bet and they are -$57.90 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week).
Melbourne: The Demons are still looking for their first win of the season and have been coping plenty of criticism in the press, which is probably not unwarranted. Sitting in last place Melbourne have averaged 18.73 scoring shots per game while allowing their opponents to average 32.75 shots for a differential of -14.02. The Demons have covered the AFL line handicap bet 2-6 for (-$410) and they are -$800 against the head to head odds.
Carlton v Melbourne Winning Margin Odds: A quick check of the major Online Bookmakers odds sees that currently the highest price for Carlton by 1-39 points is $3.25, Carlton by 40+ is $1.55 and for Melbourne to win by 1-39 points you can get odds of $13.00 or for Melbourne by 40+ you can get $101.00 while the draw is up to $101.
The prediction - The opening line handicap of +/-55.5 was just sitting outside of our go zone. With the line dropping it has fallen to a number which our handicapping shows sufficient value on offer to warrant a bet. We have taken the Carlton Blues -49.5 at $1.943 against the line. The odds at that line have dropped a little since, however up to -51.5 still shows as a play.