AFL Round 9, 2012 -
Brenton Sanderson's Adelaide Crows are favourites for their round 9 clash with Collingwood. Adelaide opened as high as $1.57 with Collingwood starting the week at $2.45 and the line opened with the Crows -10.5 Magpies +10.5. Adelaide's odds have tighten during the week to where we see them priced in the latest AFL Odds between $1.47 up to $1.501 while Collingwood are currently trading between $2.6 up to $2.78. In the line handicap market you can find Crows -12.5 Magpies +12.5 up to -/+13.5.
The Adelaide Crows: The Crows were the only away team to win last weekend and they did it in style downing Carlton by 69 points in Melbourne. Adelaide started the game as $2.84 (+14.5 point) underdogs but being underdogs and playing in Melbourne did not faze them as they continued their physical style of play, which has seen them ascend to 3rd spot on the ladder. Adelaide are 7-1 for the season having averaged 29.25 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 21.13 for a +8.12 scoring shots differential. In AFL betting results the Crows are 5-3 (+$175) against the line handicap bet and they are the second most profitable team against the head to head odds showing a profit of +$660.80 (for $100 bets each week).
Collingwood: Despite a scratchy start to the season with a number of injuries the Magpies find themselves in 5th place on the ladder with a 6-2 record. Collingwood are coming off a (96-84) win over Geelong last week having started the game as $1.69 (-6.5) favourites. Through 8 rounds Collingwood have averaged 26.13 scoring shots per game and conceded exactly 26.13 for a neutral differential. In AFL betting the Pie's are equal worst (with Geelong and Melbourne) in the league against the line handicap with a 2-6 (-$410) record while against the head to head odds they are +$11.40.
Adelaide v Collingwood Winning Margin Odds: Currently the highest odds amongst the leading online bookmakers for the various options in the winning margin market are , Adelaide by 1-39 points $2.35 (Centrebet) and for Adelaide by 40+ $4.15 (Luxbet) while for Collingwood to get the win by 1-39 points you can get $3.30 (Pinnacle Sports) and for the Magpies by 40+ $12.25 (Pinnacle Sports) with the draw available at $67 (sportsbet.com.au). Shopping for the best odds between the leading Bookmakers really is a must to ensure you are getting the best of it. Of course to take advantage of the best odds on offer means that you will need a few accounts, which you will find, is well worth the effort.
Adelaide v Collingwood History: There has been 7 regular season games played over the past 5 seasons with Collingwood holding a 5-2 advantage. The favourite has won 4 times to the underdogs 3, the home v away record is 3-4 and the team who has won straight up has covered the line handicap 4-3. 166 points is the average game total over the past 7 regular season meetings.
The Prediction - Our handicapping figures here at BetonFooty.com.au show value on the Crows. We got in and backed Adelaide in the head to head market at odds of $1.57 however we would not go below $1.5 so the current odds are at about our limit. In the line handicap market we also see value in the Crows and we bet them at -12.5 $1.92 earlier in the week. Our numbers show more room to move with the line and still see value at the current line handicap.