AFL Round 8, 2012 -
Betting markets opened the week with Carlton $1.37 v Adelaide $3.20 and a line of -/+18.5. Since then we have seen Adelaide’s odds steadily come in with the latest AFL Odds seeing Carlton priced between $1.45 up to $1.487 while Adelaide are now trading between $2.75 and $2.84. In the line handicap market the line has settled to currently sit at Carlton -14.5 Adelaide +14.5 with most bookmakers.
Carlton: The Blues are coming off a 24 point loss to St Kilda last week, a game they went into as $1.24 (-27.5) favourites. That loss moved them to 4th on the ladder with a 5-2 record having averaged 29.71 scoring shots per game while conceding an average of 21.71 for a scoring shots differential of +8. In AFL betting results this season Carlton are 4-3 (+$80) against the line handicap and they show a $42.10 profit against the head to head odds as per our AFL Head to Head Odds Results.
Adelaide Crows: Brenton Sanderson has the Crows playing a tough brand of footy and that continued last week as they dealt Geelong a 50 point loss (122-72). Adelaide is sitting 3rd on the ladder with 6 wins and 1 loss. They have averaged 29.29 scoring shots per game while allowing 22 for a positive differential of +7.29. In betting results the Crows are 4-3 (+$80) against the AFL line handicap and +$450.80 against the head to head odds.
Carlton v Adelaide Betting History: With 7 games played between these two teams over the past 5 seasons it is Adelaide who hold the edge 5-2. The home team has won 3 times to the away teams 4 and the favourite v underdogs have gone 5-2. The team who has won outright has also covered the line handicap bet 5-2. Their last meeting saw Carlton win (85-79) as $1.3 favourites however Adelaide kept it close enough to cover the line of +24.5.
The Prediction - Our handicapping numbers here at BetonFooty.com.au agree that Carlton should be favourites, however not as heavily favoured as the odds suggest. We took Adelaide in the head to head market at odds of $3.10 a few days ago and even though they have come in since the current odds still offer some value.