AFL Round 8, 2012 -
The Brisbane Lions opened the week as $1.26 favourites for their round 8 clash with Greater Western Sydney, who opened at odds of $4.50. Support for the Lions has seen their odds come in with their current AFL Head to Head Odds ranging between $1.14 up to $1.167 while the Giants have moved out to $5.75 up to $6.00. The Line Handicap market has also seen quite a deal of movement throughout the week, with the opening -/+25.5 quickly being pushed to -/+30.5. From there the line has slowly been moving up to presently sit between Brisbane -35.5 GWS +35.5 up to -/+36.5 depending on the bookmaker.
Brisbane Lions: Michael Voss' side has had a tough few weeks having suffered heavy defeats to COL (58-116), ESS (62-129) and GEE (41-79). Throwing in a second round loss to CAR (63-154) the only bright spots in season 2012 for Brisbane have been two wins against bottom of the ladder MEL (119-78) and GC (111-46). Sitting 14th on the ladder with a 2-5 record Brisbane have averaged 20.57 scoring shots per game while allowing 26.57 for a scoring shots differential of -6. In AFL betting results the Lions are 3-4 (-$155) against the line handicap and -$269.60 against the head to head odds.
Greater Western Sydney: The Giants are coming off a historic win over the Gold Coast Suns in Canberra last weekend (94-67). The win had been coming with Kevin Sheedy's team playing enthusiastic footy. A testament to that is how well the Giants have performed against the AFL Line Handicap bet thus far, with a 6-1 +$470 (for $100 bets each week) record which is equal best in the league heading into round 8. Overall the Giants are in 16th place with a 1-6 record having averaged 17 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 32.14 for a differential of -15.14.
Brisbane v GWS Winning Margin Odds: In the winning margin market it always pays to shop the leading Online Bookmakers to establish the highest odds before you bet. A quick look around the market place sees that currently the highest odds for Brisbane to win by 1-39 points is $2.38, Brisbane by 40+ is $2.14 while for GWS to get their second win by a margin of 1-39 points you can get odds of $6.50 or GWS by 40+ at $36 and the draw is $81.
The Prediction - Here at BetonFooty.com.au our numbers showed value on the early line handicap. We took Brisbane -30.5 points a few days ago at $1.92. Based on our handicapping 33.5 was about our limit so at the current line we would be leaving it alone.