AFL Round 6, 2012 -
The Western Bulldogs take on Collingwood in AFL Friday night football from Etihad Stadium at 7.50pm. The Western Bulldogs are currently trading between $6.5 up to $7.04 in the head to head market while odds for hot favourites Collingwood are between $1.10 and $1.133. Checking the early line handicaps at our live AFL Odds page we see that currently the line ranges between +/-38.5 up to +/-41.5 with the average being Western Bulldogs +40.5 Collingwood -40.5 points.
Western Bulldogs: Having started the season with 3 straight losses the Western Bulldogs have managed back to back wins over the last two rounds. They find themselves coming into round 6 with a 2-3 record having averaged 76.6 points per game while conceding an average of 90 for a negative differential of -13.40. The Western Bulldogs have lost to the West Coast Eagles (12.15) 87 to (21.10) 136, Adelaide (9.10) 64 to (11.16) 82 and St Kilda (5.10) 40 to (15.13) 103 while they have beaten Melbourne (13.10) 88 to (9.13) 67 and GWS (15.14) 104 to (9.8) 62. In AFL betting results the Western Bulldogs are 2-3 (-$110) against the line handicap and they are -$253.3 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week).
Collingwood Magpies: The Magpies are in 10th spot on the ladder with 3 wins and 2 losses to their name. Collingwood's injury problems have been well documented however there may be some light at the end of the injury tunnel, with reports Heath Shaw, Ben Reid, Alan Didak and Dale Thomas all training on Tuesday. Which players will or will not make their return for round 6 won't be known until later in the week. Collingwood are coming off their dramatic 1 point win over Essendon last week (11.14) 80 to (11.13) 79 with their other victories being against Richmond (12.13) 85 to (9.4) 58 and Port Adelaide (14.13) 97 to (10.13) 73. The Magpies losses have been against Hawthorn (16.19) 115 to (20.17) 137 and Carlton (9.8) 62 to (18.14) 122. In AFL betting results Collingwood are currently 0-5 -$500 against the line handicap and -$86.50 against the head to head odds.
A scan of the early winning margin market sees that currently some of the best odds available are Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points $7.60 (Sportsbet.com.au), Western Bulldogs by 40 + $46 (Luxbet) and for Collingwood by 1-39 points $2.60 (Sportsbet.com.au), Collingwood 40+ $1.95 (Luxbet) and the draw can be backed at odds of $67.
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood History: Over the last 5 regular seasons the record stands at Western Bulldogs 3 wins to Collingwood’s 4 wins. The team who has won straight up has covered the line handicap 6-1 while the starting favourite has won 4-3. The last meeting saw Collingwood start as $1.18 (-32.5) favourites and they won convincingly (105-57) and covered the line by 15.5 points. The average game total between these two teams over the past 5 years is 203.14.
The verdict - BetonFooty.com.au's handicapping numbers show a play on the Western Bulldogs against the line handicap and we have taken them at +41.5.