AFL Round 6, 2012 -
AFL Round 6 sees St Kilda hosting Hawthorn on Saturday night at the MCG, 7.40pm. Odds for the Saints to cause an upset currently range between $3.45 up to 3.69 while comparing AFL Head to Head Odds for Hawthorn we find them trading between $1.27 up to $1.327. The Line Handicap for this game sees most bookmakers currently running with St Kilda +24.5 Hawthorn -24.5 and no over under line posted as yet.
St Kilda: The Saints are 3-2 for the season with wins over GC (21.13) 139 to (7.5) 47, WB (15.13) 103 to (5.10) 40 and MEL (12.12) 84 to (10.6) 66 while they have been beaten by PORT (13.7) 85 to (13.11) 89 and FRE (11.13) 79 to (14.8) 92. Thus far St Kilda has averaged 98 points per game while allowing an average of 66.8 for a differential of +31.20. In AFL betting results for the season the Saints are 2-3 (-$110) against the line handicap and they are -$127.90 against the head to head odds.
Hawthorn: The Hawks have been copping it in the media this week and should be primed for this game. AFL Results show that Hawthorn have had 2 wins, over COL (20.17) 137 to (16.19) 115 and ADEL (21.14) 140 to (12.12) 84 and three losses which have been against GEE (13.12) 90 to (14.8) 92, WC (5.16) 46 to (5.21) 51 and last week to SYD (10.9) 69 to (16.10) 106. Betting wise the Hawks are 2-3 (-$110) against the AFL Line and they are -$213 against the money line odds (for $100 bets each week)
Comparing odds from the leading Online Bookmakers we find odds for St Kilda to win by 1-39 points $4.50, St Kilda by 40+ $20 and Hawthorn to win by 1-39 points at $2.25 all at Pinnacle Sports and you can get Hawthorn 40+ $2.90 at Centrebet. The draw option is available at odds up to $67.00.
History St Kilda v Hawthorn: Having met six times in regular season games over the past 5 seasons the Saints hold a slight lead 3-2-1 with the 2010 game ending in an 87 point draw. The home v away record is 4-1-1 and the starting favourite has won twice while the underdog has caused the upset 3 times. Last time they played Hawthorn started as $1.40 (-19.5) favourites and they got the win 99-69 and covered the line by 10.5 points.
The verdict - BetonFooty.com.au's handicapping numbers show value on the Saints against the line. We have taken St Kilda +24.5 points.