AFL Round 4, 2012 -
AFL Round 4 sees St Kilda host Fremantle in Friday night footy at Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm. The early AFL Odds see the Saints as strong favourites at head to head odds of $1.40 while the Fremantle Dockers are priced between $2.9 to $3.10. In AFL line handicap betting most bookmakers have posted a line of St Kilda -17.5 Fremantle +17.5.
St Kilda are coming of a big 63 point win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend which took them to a 2-1 start for the season. The Saints have beaten the Gold Coast Suns (21.13) 139 to (7.5) 47 and the Western Bulldogs (15.13) 103 to (5.10) 40. Their loss came in round 1 as $1.37 favourites against Port Adelaide (13.7) 85 to (13.11) 89. That upset win by Port Adelaide saw them cash as the 2nd highest priced underdog winner so far this season at odds of $3.39, with North Melbourne's win last week being the current highest at $4.75. In AFL betting results St Kilda are 2-1 +$90 against the line handicap and -$38.80 against the head to head odds for $100 bets each week.
Fremantle have had 2 wins and a loss through the first 3 rounds of this season. They started off with a home win over Geelong (16.9) 105 to (15.11) 101 then fell short against the Swans (12.9) 81 to (14.10) 94 and got their 2nd win last week against the Lions in a low scoring affair (8.16) 64 to (5.5) 35. The Dockers win over Brisbane last week came at a cost with young star Nat Fyfe sustaining a shoulder injury. In AFL betting results the Dockers are 1-2 -$105 against the line handicap bet and are showing a profit of +$36 against the head to head odds.
The early margin betting markets see odds of St Kilda 1-39 points $2.25, St Kilda 40+ points $3.50 and Fremantle 1-39 points $3.60, Fremantle 40+ points $3.60 while the draw option is currently at odds of $67.
With 9 regular season games between these two teams over the past 5 years it is St Kilda who hold the advantage 8-1. In fact you need to look back to 2007 to find the Dockers last win over the Saints. Backing the Saints against the AFL head to head odds (for $100 each game) over this time would have produced a profit of +$533 (ROI 59%) while similar sized bets on the line handicap would show +$465 (52%). At home St Kilda is 5-0 against the Dockers having covered the line 4-1. The Saints average margin of victory is 35.5 points and the average game total is 168.44 points.