AFL Round 3, 2012 -
There are 5 teams yet to record a win in AFL season 2012 and two of them face off on Saturday when the Richmond Tigers host the Melbourne Demons. Richmond are favourites, with the bookmakers current head to head odds seeing them priced from $1.26 to $1.32 while Melbourne's odds range from $3.75 up to $3.95. A quick look at our live AFL Odds page shows that the majority of bookmakers are running with a line handicap of Richmond -25.5 Melbourne +25.5 while Pinnacle sports current line is Tigers -24.5 and Demons +24.5.
Richmond's 2 losses have been against Carlton (12.9) 81 to (18.17) 125 and Collingwood (8.16) 64 to (12.13) 85. The Tigers started both of those games as underdogs at odds of around $2.55 and $6.27 respectively. They head into this clash with their average odds suggesting that they have around a 77% chance of getting their first win against the Demons. Last week Richmond covered the AFL line handicap bet +35.5 against the Magpies which took their record against the line to 1-1.
The Melbourne Demons have had plenty of media attention recently with pretty much all of it for the wrong reasons. Melbourne went into round 1 as $1.45 favourites against the Brisbane Lions only to be on the end of a (119-78) loss. They followed that up last week with a 108 point thrashing by West Coast (9.4) 58 to (25.16) 166.
There have been nine regular season games between Richmond and Melbourne in the last 5 years with Richmond leading 5-4. In AFL betting results in those games we see that the favourite has won straight up in 6 of the 9 games while the highest priced underdog victory was Melbourne at odds of $3.33 back in 2009. The team who has won the match straight up has also covered the line handicap 8-1 which means that betting the favourite against the line handicap in each game (for $100 at average odds $1.95) would have resulted in a profit of $270 as opposed to -$40 for betting them on the head to head odds. The home team has won 3 to the away teams 6 and the average game total has been 196.33 points.