Brisbane v Carlton

AFL Round 2, 2012

Two convincing first round winners square off in AFL Thursday night football, when the Brisbane Lions host the Carlton Blues at the Gabba (7.40pm). The bookmakers early opening AFL line handicap for this game has the Lions as +19.5 underdogs (with Centrebet) and +20.5 (with Sportsbet.com.au). The AFL Odds betting market sees the Brisbane Lions at $3.20 while Carlton are currently $1.35.

Brisbane got their season off to a strong start with a (17.17) 119 points to (11.12) 78 victory over Melbourne last Saturday. Brisbane held a 4 point lead at the halftime, but it was the third and 4th quarters where the Lions dictated terms ending up with a comfortable 41 point victory and some 100 more uncontested possessions than the Demons. In the betting results the Lions cashed against the money line at around $2.90 and covered the line handicap bet (+15.5) with ease, while the game total of 197 points went over the listed AFL total line of 187.5.

Carlton made it 8 straight against the Tigers in front of 78,000 at the MCG in round 1. Richmond put together 5 straight goals in the third quarter to put the game in the balance however the Blues showed their class and composure in the 4th quarter to get the 44 point victory (18.17) 125 to (12.9) 81. Carlton won in the AFL Head to Head betting market at average odds of $1.58, they also covered the line handicap of -12.5 and the game total of 206 went over the bookies betting line of O/U196.5.

AFL Betting History Brisbane v Carlton Round 2, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
28/04/07 1.93 -11.5 Carlton 124 V 136 Brisbane 11.5 1.97
22/07/07 1.2 -30.5 Brisbane 163 V 46 Carlton 30.5 5.2
17/05/08 2.1 1.5 Carlton 92 V 125 Brisbane -1.5 1.83
23/08/08 1.46 -16.5 Brisbane 109 V 115 Carlton 16.5 2.94
04/04/09 1.35 -20.5 Carlton 119 V 100 Brisbane 20.5 3.5
06/06/09 1.63 -9.5 Brisbane 106 V 112 Carlton 9.5 2.44
01/04/10 1.37 -19.5 Brisbane 107 V 88 Carlton 19.5 3.41
01/07/10 1.27 -24.5 Carlton 120 V 65 Brisbane 24.5 4.26
12/06/11 1.07 -48.5 Carlton 124 V 63 Brisbane 48.5 10.75

These two teams have met 9 times over the regular season in the last 5 years. Carlton has won 5 and Brisbane 4. The last two meetings have seen the Blues start as short price favourites ($1.27) and ($1.07) in the AFL betting market, with those prices justified by a 55 point win and a 61 point win last season. The team who won the game has covered the AFL Line in 7 of the 9 games while the starting favourite has gone 6-3. The average game total over the past 9 games is 212.67 points with 7 games having totals over the league average (187 points) one game being under and last seasons match ending with exactly 187 points.