Collingwood v Hawthorn
AFL Round 17, 2012 -
AFL Round 17 features some great match ups with none better than Collingwood taking on Hawthorn, 1.45pm Saturday at the MCG. The Latest AFL Odds see Collingwood priced between $1.94 up to $1.98 in the Head to Head market while Hawthorn are slight favourites with their odds between $1.82 up to $1.925. With the bookmakers pricing these two teams evenly most are not running a line handicap.
Collingwood: The Magpies are coming off a convincing 26 point win over Geelong which took their record to 12-3 for the season. Sitting in 3rd place on the ladder Collingwood have averaged 27.07 scoring shots per game while allowing their opponents an average of 24.07 scoring shots for a differential of +3. The past four matches for Collingwood have resulted in a win over Geelong (105-79), a loss to Carlton (62-85) and wins over Fremantle (107-78) and West Coast (85-82). In AFL betting results the Magpies have not covered the line handicap too often this season with their record currently standing at 5-10 (-$525) while their head to head record of 12-3 is showing a profit of +$214.20 (for $100 bets each week).
Hawthorn: Alastair Clarkson's Hawks are traveling along well with an 11-4 record which sits them in 4th place on the ladder. Hawthorn have averaged 32.67 scoring shots per game while conceding 21.07 for a +11.6 differential. In AFL futures markets the leading online bookmakers have the Hawks as favourites to take out the premiership with their odds ranging between $3.25 up to $3.50. Hawthorn's last four games have seen them defeat the Bulldogs (116-44), Giants (193-31), Blues (120-70) and Lions (135-70). Showing a profit of +$645 and sporting a 11-4 record the Hawks are currently the most profitable team against the Line Handicap in the league, while despite an impressive win loss record they are -$157 against the head to head odds.
| Date | Odds | Line | Home | Score | V | Score | Away | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/07 | 2.28 | 8.5 | Collingwood | 87 |  |
95 | Hawthorn | -8.5 | 1.71 |
| 03/05/08 | 1.57 | -13.5 | Hawthorn | 154 | |
89 | Collingwood | 13.5 | 2.6 |
| 01/08/08 | 3.04 | 15.5 | Collingwood | 62 | |
116 | Hawthorn | -15.5 | 1.44 |
| 18/07/09 | 1.4 | -17.5 | Collingwood | 76 | |
121 | Hawthorn | 17.5 | 3.2 |
| 17/04/10 | 1.65 | -9.5 | Collingwood | 123 | |
59 | Hawthorn | 9.5 | 2.39 |
| 28/08/10 | 2.6 | 11.5 | Hawthorn | 98 | |
95 | Collingwood | -11.5 | 1.56 |
| 03/07/11 | 1.34 | -22.5 | Collingwood | 106 | |
65 | Hawthorn | 22.5 | 3.56 |
| 30/03/12 | 1.67 | -6.5 | Hawthorn | 137 | |
115 | Collingwood | 6.5 | 2.3 |
Collingwood v Hawthorn History: The last eight regular season clashes between these two sides has seen the Hawks win 6 games and the Magpies win 2 games. The home side has a 5-3 record while the starting favourite v underdog record is 6-2. The winning team has covered the line handicap 7-1 and the average game total is 199.75 points. The last time they played Hawthorn won (137-115) and covered the line in a high scoring game as $1.67 (-6.5) favourites.
The Prediction - BetonFooty.com.au like Hawthorn in this game and our handicapping numbers show sufficient value on them to warrant a play. We have taken the Hawks in the Head to Head market at odds of $1.90. Worth mentioning is Sportsbet.com.au's generous promotion for round 17 whereby they will refund your AFL head to head bets if your team is leading at 3 quarter time and they lose the match. If you would like to take advantage of the offer and check out the promotion rules Click here.
