Collingwood v Carlton
AFL Round 15, 2012 -
Collingwood take on Carlton in AFL Round 15 Friday Night Footy action. When these two teams met in round three this season Carlton were slight favourites at $1.85 and the Magpies were at $1.97. This time around a comparison of the leading AFL bookmakers odds shows Collingwood are currently trading between $1.20 up to $1.25 while Carlton are between $4.25 up to $4.46. The line handicap differs amongst the bookmakers with Collingwood -29.5 Carlton +29.5 being the average however lines of -/+29 and -/+30.5 also being available.
Collingwood: The Magpies are on top of the ladder with an 11-2 record and have firmed into favourites (or equal favourites with Hawthorn) to take the flag, with their current futures odds ranging between $3.75 up to $4.00. Looking at the stats Collingwood have averaged 99.54 points per game while allowing 80.15 for a (+19.39) differential, they also have a positive scoring shots per game differential of +4 having averaged 27.62 scoring shots per game while conceding 23.62. In AFL betting results Collingwood are 4-9 (-$520) against the line handicap and they are +$254.20 against the H2H odds. In recent AFL scores and results the Magpies have beaten Frematle (107-78), West Coast (85-82) and Melbourne (129-87) and had the bye. The latest news is that Collingwood are likely to welcome Scott Pendlebury and Chris Tarrant back into the line up for this clash.
Carlton: Reports say Carlton president Stephen Kernhan has announced that Brett Ratten's job is secure to at least the end of the season. Just how comforting or secure that is for Ratten or the Carlton players is questionable. Carlton is sitting in 10th spot with 6 wins and 7 losses having averaged 26.08 scoring shots per game while conceding 24.23 for a differential of +1.85. In recent results the Blues have lost to the Hawks (70-120), had the bye and lost to the Eagles (69-79) and Cats (85-97). In AFL betting results Carlton are 7-6 (+65) against the line handicap and they are showing a loss of -$454.9 against the money line odds (for $100 bets each week).
| Date | Odds | Line | Home | Score | V | Score | Away | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/07 | 1.48 | -15.5 | Collingwood | 119 |  |
95 | Carlton | 15.5 | 2.9 |
| 04/08/07 | 7.5 | 32.5 | Carlton | 96 | |
120 | Collingwood | -32.5 | 1.12 |
| 13/04/08 | 4.1 | 24.5 | Carlton | 111 | |
88 | Collingwood | -24.5 | 1.28 |
| 15/06/08 | 1.4 | -19.5 | Collingwood | 89 | |
119 | Carlton | 19.5 | 3.24 |
| 17/05/09 | 2.62 | 14.5 | Collingwood | 53 | |
104 | Carlton | -14.5 | 1.56 |
| 24/07/09 | 2.2 | 4.5 | Carlton | 40 | |
94 | Collingwood | -4.5 | 1.76 |
| 02/05/10 | 2.53 | 11.5 | Carlton | 102 | |
155 | Collingwood | -11.5 | 1.59 |
| 31/07/10 | 1.22 | -29.5 | Collingwood | 105 | |
57 | Carlton | 29.5 | 4.85 |
| 08/04/11 | 1.28 | -23.5 | Collingwood | 102 | |
74 | Carlton | 23.5 | 4.14 |
| 16/07/11 | 5.83 | 37.5 | Carlton | 79 | |
98 | Collingwood | -37.5 | 1.17 |
| 13/04/12 | 1.85 | -1 | Carlton | 122 | |
62 | Collingwood | 1 | 1.97 |
Collingwood v Carlton History: Of the last eleven regular season games Collingwood have won 7 and Carlton have won 4. The line handicap record sees Carlton with a 6-5 record. The home team has won 5 games to the away teams 6 and the starting favourite has won 9-2. The team who has won straight up has covered the line 9-2 and the average game total is 189.45.
The Prediction - Our handicapping numbers here at BetonFooty.com.au pretty much agree with the bookies odds and line and we don't see enough value either way to make a play.
