Sydney v Geelong
AFL Round 13, 2012 -
The Sydney Swans are +7.5 point favourites for their AFL Round 13 clash with the Geelong Cats, Friday 7.50pm at the SCG. AFL head to head odds comparisons show that currently Sydney are trading between $1.62 up to $1.67 while Geelong are priced between $2.20 up to $2.36. Most bookmakers have the Line Handicap set at Sydney -7.5 Geelong +7.5 with -/+8.5 also available.
Sydney Swans: John Longmire's side are coming off the bye, should be well rested and looking forward to the expected return of captain Adam Goodes for this game. Sydney have an 8-3 record for the season having averaged 26.18 scoring shots per game while allowing 21.55 for a scoring shots differential of +4.63. Sydney has a home record of 4-1. In recent AFL Scores the Swans have defeated the Bombers (86-82), Bulldogs (132-40) and Demons (138-37) and lost to the Saints (83-111). The Swans have been profitable in AFL betting with a 7-4 (+$265) record against the line bet and +$371.50 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week).
Sydney Swans Line Up: (Updated closer to game time)
Geelong Cats: Like Sydney the Cats had last week off due to the bye which should see them nice and fresh for this road trip. Geelong has won their last 3 straight games which were against Carlton (97-85), Greater Western Sydney (126-61) and Western Bulldogs (95-75) with a loss to Collingwood (84-96) in round 8. On the road this season the Cats are 3-4 with their overall record standing at 7 wins and 4 losses. Looking at scoring shots stats we see that Geelong have averaged 26.27 scoring shots per game while conceding 23.82 for a +2.45 differential. In AFL Line betting results Geelong have been the worst performers against the line bet in the league with a 2-9 (-$710) record while against the head to head odds they are showing a loss of -$119.90.
Geelong Cats Line Up: (Updated closer to game time)
Sydney v Geelong Winning Margin Odds: Taking a look at the leading AFL online bookmakers odds for the winning margin option we see that for Sydney to win by 1-39 points the odds currently range between $2.25 up to $2.30, Sydney by 40+ points $4.60 up to $4.70 while for Geelong to get the win by 1-39 points the odds range between $2.80 up to $2.90 or for Geelong by 40+ $8.75 up to $9.75 and the draw is trading at $67.
| Date | Odds | Line | Home | Score | V | Score | Away | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/07 | 1.35 | -17.5 | Geelong | 87 |  |
69 | Sydney | 17.5 | 3.5 |
| 19/04/08 | 1.25 | -25.5 | Geelong | 114 | |
72 | Sydney | 25.5 | 4.55 |
| 16/08/08 | 4.7 | 25.5 | Sydney | 94 | |
133 | Geelong | -25.5 | 1.23 |
| 09/05/09 | 1.12 | -37.5 | Geelong | 116 | |
65 | Sydney | 37.5 | 7.4 |
| 15/08/09 | 2.8 | 13.5 | Sydney | 87 | |
92 | Geelong | -13.5 | 1.5 |
| 09/05/10 | 1.31 | -22.5 | Geelong | 126 | |
59 | Sydney | 22.5 | 3.87 |
| 31/07/10 | 4.54 | 26.5 | Sydney | 72 | |
125 | Geelong | -26.5 | 1.24 |
| 16/04/11 | 2.2 | 5.5 | Sydney | 54 | |
81 | Geelong | -5.5 | 1.75 |
| 27/08/11 | 1.09 | -47.5 | Geelong | 86 | |
99 | Sydney | 47.5 | 9.5 |
Sydney v Geelong History: Over the past 5 years of regular season play these two teams have met 9 times with Geelong dominating 8-1. Sydney's only win came in their last meeting (99-86) where they were $9.50 (+47.5 point) underdogs. Overall in the past 9 games the home team has won 4 times to the away teams 5 times. The starting favourite has won 8-1 and the team who wins outright has also covered the line handicap 8-1. The average game total is 181.22 points.
The Prediction - BetonFooty.com.au's handicapping figures show sufficient value on Sydney against the line handicap to make a play, we have taken the Swans -7.5 at $1.952.