Hawthorn v Brisbane

AFL Round 12, 2012 -

Hawthorn is heavily favoured for their round 12 clash with Brisbane at the MCG, Sunday 1.10pm. Comparing the bookmakers AFL Head to Head Odds we see that currently Hawthorn are trading between $1.05 up to $1.07 while Brisbane are priced between $8.50 up to $11.25. The line handicap opened the week at -/+48.5 points and has moved out a few points to where it currently sits at Hawthorn Hawks -50.5 Brisbane Lions +50.5.

Hawthorn: Alastair Clarkson's Hawks are traveling along nicely having won 5 of their last 6 matches. Hawthorn are sitting in 6th place on the ladder with a 7-4 record having averaged 30.55 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 23.27 for a differential of +7.28. In recent AFL scores and results Hawthorn have defeated the Power (108-62), Kangaroos (174-59) and Dockers (119-63) and lost to the Tigers (75-139). Backing Hawthorn against the AFL betting line has been profitable with their record standing at 7-4 (+$256) while against the head to head odds they are -$202.60.

Hawthorn Line Up: In Hawks line up news Brendan Whitecross has been ruled out with a hip injury which sees Thomas Murphy coming in.

Brisbane: The Lions are coming off the bye which should have them well rested and full of running. Prior to the bye Brisbane recorded a 2 point win over West Coast (102-100), went down to North Melbourne (96-112), thrashed GWS (132-40) and lost to Collingwood (58-116). Sitting in 13th spot with a 4-6 record Brisbane have averaged 22.40 scoring shots per game and allowed 25.3 for a -2.9 differential. Brisbane's betting results against the line handicap have seen them cover the line 6 times and fall short 4 times for +$170 while against the money line odds they are showing a profit of +$20.90.

Brisbane Lions Line Up: For the Lions Ryan Harwood is in and Ashley McGrath has been ruled out.

Hawthorn v Brisbane Margin Odds: A quick look at the leading AFL bookmakers odds sees that currently prices for Hawthorn to win by 1-39 points range between $2.80 up to $3.27, Hawthorn by 40+ $1.485 up to $1.50 while for Brisbane to cause the upset by 1-39 points the odds are between $10.50 up to $13.09, Brisbane by 40+ $41 up to $86 and the draw is up to $101.

AFL Betting History Hawthorn v Brisbane Round 12, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
31/03/07 1.75 -6.5 Brisbane 69 V 44 Hawthorn 6.5 2.22
11/08/07 1.84 -4.5 Hawthorn 115 V 91 Brisbane 4.5 2.09
19/04/08 2.25 6.5 Brisbane 118 V 130 Hawthorn -6.5 1.73
09/08/08 1.24 -24.5 Hawthorn 110 V 41 Brisbane 24.5 4.65
14/06/09 1.45 -15.5 Hawthorn 51 V 93 Brisbane 15.5 2.98
17/07/10 1.28 -23.5 Hawthorn 118 V 43 Brisbane 23.5 4.1
09/07/11 1.11 -39.5 Hawthorn 105 V 63 Brisbane 39.5 7.88

The prediction - Here at BetonFooty.com.au our handicapping numbers show value on the Hawks against the line, or we should we say they did. We backed Hawthorn -48.5 earlier in the week which was just on the limit as to how high we would go. The current line is just outside our comfort zone.