Melbourne v Collingwood

AFL Round 11, 2012 -

Can the Demons be the only home team to win in AFL round 11? The bookmaker’s odds say they have about a 7% chance of making it two in a row when they host Collingwood this afternoon. Comparing bookmakers Live AFL odds we see that Melbourne are currently priced between $9.00 up to $10.25 while Collingwood are trading between $1.06 up to $1.08 in the head to head market. The line handicap is Melbourne +46.5 points Collingwood -46.5 points and the over under total is O/U 184.5.

Melbourne: Last weekend was full of upsets with none bigger than the Demons 6 point win over the Bombers, where Melbourne started as $12.5 (+56.5) underdogs. That first win of the season took Melbourne to 1-9 for the season and sees them sitting in 16th place on the ladder. In other recent results the Demons have lost to Carlton (49-107) and Sydney (37-138). Melbourne has averaged 18.2 scoring shots per game while allowing 31.6 for a negative differential of -13.4. In AFL betting results this season the Demons are 3-7 (-$415) against the line bet and they are -$250 against the head to head odds.

Melbourne Line Up: Not many changes to the Demons line up to report with only Joel Macdonald out and James Frawley in.

Collingwood: The Magpies seem to have their season back on track after a slow start, and are back as favourites for the flag with the bookies at around $4.00. In recent AFL results and scores Collingwood have defeated the Suns (149-52), Crows (75-49) and Cats (96-84). The Magpies have averaged 26.8 scoring shots per game while conceding 24.5 for a +2.3 differential. Betting results see Collingwood with a 4-6 (-$220) record against the line bet and they are 8-2 (+$157.70) against the money line odds.

Collingwood Line Up: The Magpies line up sees Scott Pendlebury, Cameron Wood and Kirk Ugle all ruled out with Dane Swan, Darren Jolly and Chris Tarrant all in.

Melbourne v Collingwood Margin Odds: With Collingwood at nearly unbackable odds many punters look to the winning margin bet to find higher priced odds to bet into. A quick odds comparison at the leading AFL Bookmakers reveals that currently the prices for Melbourne to win by 1-39 points range between $9.2 up to $10.25, Melbourne by 40+ $29 up to $67 while for Collingwood to win by 1-39 points the odds are trading between $2.60 up to $2.83 and for Collingwood by 40+ $1.59 up to $1.658 and the draw is at $66.

AFL Betting History Melbourne v Collingwood Round 11, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
11/06/07 2.36 8.5 Melbourne 94 V 81 Collingwood -8.5 1.66
17/08/07 1.62 -9.5 Collingwood 81 V 70 Melbourne 9.5 2.33
09/06/08 11 48.5 Melbourne 95 V 116 Collingwood -48.5 1.07
04/04/09 1.18 -35.5 Collingwood 117 V 64 Melbourne 35.5 5.5
08/06/09 4.65 27.5 Melbourne 60 V 126 Collingwood -27.5 1.24
03/04/10 1.05 -44.5 Collingwood 86 V 85 Melbourne 44.5 13
14/06/10 5.42 32 Melbourne 76 V 76 Collingwood -32 1.19
13/06/11 5.04 28.5 Melbourne 41 V 129 Collingwood -28.5 1.21

History between Melbourne and Collingwood: Collingwood hold a 6-1-1 lead over the last 8 regular season match ups. The home team has won 4 times to the away teams 3 times and the starting favourite has a 6-1-1 record. The team who wins straight up has covered the line handicap bet 5-2 and the average game total is 174.63 points

The Prediction - We agree with the odds and lines that the bookmakers have posted and our handicapping numbers here at don't show enough value either way to warrant a play.