Melbourne v Collingwood
AFL Round 11, 2012 -
Can the Demons be the only home team to win in AFL round 11? The bookmaker’s odds say they have about a 7% chance of making it two in a row when they host Collingwood this afternoon. Comparing bookmakers Live AFL odds we see that Melbourne are currently priced between $9.00 up to $10.25 while Collingwood are trading between $1.06 up to $1.08 in the head to head market. The line handicap is Melbourne +46.5 points Collingwood -46.5 points and the over under total is O/U 184.5.
Melbourne: Last weekend was full of upsets with none bigger than the Demons 6 point win over the Bombers, where Melbourne started as $12.5 (+56.5) underdogs. That first win of the season took Melbourne to 1-9 for the season and sees them sitting in 16th place on the ladder. In other recent results the Demons have lost to Carlton (49-107) and Sydney (37-138). Melbourne has averaged 18.2 scoring shots per game while allowing 31.6 for a negative differential of -13.4. In AFL betting results this season the Demons are 3-7 (-$415) against the line bet and they are -$250 against the head to head odds.
Melbourne Line Up: Not many changes to the Demons line up to report with only Joel Macdonald out and James Frawley in.
Collingwood: The Magpies seem to have their season back on track after a slow start, and are back as favourites for the flag with the bookies at around $4.00. In recent AFL results and scores Collingwood have defeated the Suns (149-52), Crows (75-49) and Cats (96-84). The Magpies have averaged 26.8 scoring shots per game while conceding 24.5 for a +2.3 differential. Betting results see Collingwood with a 4-6 (-$220) record against the line bet and they are 8-2 (+$157.70) against the money line odds.
Collingwood Line Up: The Magpies line up sees Scott Pendlebury, Cameron Wood and Kirk Ugle all ruled out with Dane Swan, Darren Jolly and Chris Tarrant all in.
Melbourne v Collingwood Margin Odds: With Collingwood at nearly unbackable odds many punters look to the winning margin bet to find higher priced odds to bet into. A quick odds comparison at the leading AFL Bookmakers reveals that currently the prices for Melbourne to win by 1-39 points range between $9.2 up to $10.25, Melbourne by 40+ $29 up to $67 while for Collingwood to win by 1-39 points the odds are trading between $2.60 up to $2.83 and for Collingwood by 40+ $1.59 up to $1.658 and the draw is at $66.
| Date | Odds | Line | Home | Score | V | Score | Away | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/07 | 2.36 | 8.5 | Melbourne | 94 |  |
81 | Collingwood | -8.5 | 1.66 |
| 17/08/07 | 1.62 | -9.5 | Collingwood | 81 | |
70 | Melbourne | 9.5 | 2.33 |
| 09/06/08 | 11 | 48.5 | Melbourne | 95 | |
116 | Collingwood | -48.5 | 1.07 |
| 04/04/09 | 1.18 | -35.5 | Collingwood | 117 | |
64 | Melbourne | 35.5 | 5.5 |
| 08/06/09 | 4.65 | 27.5 | Melbourne | 60 | |
126 | Collingwood | -27.5 | 1.24 |
| 03/04/10 | 1.05 | -44.5 | Collingwood | 86 | |
85 | Melbourne | 44.5 | 13 |
| 14/06/10 | 5.42 | 32 | Melbourne | 76 | |
76 | Collingwood | -32 | 1.19 |
| 13/06/11 | 5.04 | 28.5 | Melbourne | 41 | |
129 | Collingwood | -28.5 | 1.21 |
History between Melbourne and Collingwood: Collingwood hold a 6-1-1 lead over the last 8 regular season match ups. The home team has won 4 times to the away teams 3 times and the starting favourite has a 6-1-1 record. The team who wins straight up has covered the line handicap bet 5-2 and the average game total is 174.63 points
The Prediction - We agree with the odds and lines that the bookmakers have posted and our handicapping numbers here at BetonFooty.com.au don't show enough value either way to warrant a play.
