Gold Coast v St Kilda

AFL Round 11, 2012 -

Bookmakers odds are giving the Gold Coast Suns roughly a 10% chance of getting their first win of the season when they host St Kilda this weekend. Comparing AFL Odds at the top bookmakers we see that Gold Coast are trading between $7.75 up to $8.70 in the head to head market while odds for St Kilda range between $1.08 up to $1.097. The line handicap opened the week with the Gold Coast +46.5 points however that line has moved in a little to where it currently sits at Gold Coast +43.5 St Kilda -43.5.

The Gold Coast Suns: The Suns captain Gary Ablett has received plenty of advice from experts in the press who believe he needs to change the way he is playing and his level of involvement. Unfortunately for the Suns when you have a 0-10 record and sit in last place this is the kind of attention you attract as a club. The Gold Coast have averaged 18.7 scoring shots per game while allowing their opponents an average of 32.1 scoring shots for a negative differential of -13.4. In AFL betting results the Gold Coast have covered the line handicap 3 times and fallen short 7 times for a -$415 loss and they are -$1000 against the head to head odds (for $100 bets each week).

Gold Coast Line Up: Named to come into the Suns line up are Jared Brennan, Josh Toy, Brandon Matera and Seb Tape while Alik Magin, Joel Wilkinson, Tom Lynch and Kyal Horsley have all benn ruled out.

St Kilda: The Saints are sitting in 9th spot on the ladder with a 5-5 record. In recent AFL results St Kilda have lost to Richmond (113-121) and West Coast (91-121) and defeated Sydney (111-83) and Carlton (122-98). The Saints have a scoring shot per game average of 26.9 while allowing 23.5 for a positive differential of +3.4. In AFL line betting results St Kilda are 4-6 -$220 and against the head to head odds they are 5-5 -$12.89.

St Kilda Line Up: The Saints line up is unchanged at this stage.

Gold Coast v St Kilda Margin Odds: We are always commenting on the benefits of comparing odds at the leading online bookmakers before placing your wager and the winning margin market is no acceptation with odds varying widely. Currently we see that prices for the Gold Coast to win by 1-39 points range between $8.50 up to $8.75, Gold Coast by 40+ $28 up to $61 and for the favourites St Kilda by 1-39 points $2.45 up to $2.6 or St Kilda by 40+ $1.71 up to $1.75 and the draw is as high as $101.

AFL Betting History Gold Coast v St Kilda Round 11, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
30/07/11 9.16 41.5 Gold Coast 54 V 74 St Kilda -41.5 1.09
08/04/12 1.062 -52.5 St Kilda 139 V 47 Gold Coast 52.5 11.75

History Between Gold Coast v St Kilda: With just the two regular season games between these two clubs it is the Saints who hold the advantage 2-0. In season 2011 the Gold Coast hosted St Kilda as $9.16 (+41.5) underdogs when they lost by 20 points and covered the line by 21.5 points. Their most recent encounter was in round 2 this year when St Kilda were $1.062 (-52.5) favourites and ran away with a 92 point victory easily covering the line by 39.5 points.

The Prediction - The handicapping model shows enough value on St Kilda against the line handicap here to warrant a play. We have taken St Kilda -42 points at $1.92.