Essendon v Sydney

AFL Round 11, 2012 -

Essendon opened the week as $1.60 favourites for their round 11 clash with Sydney. The Bombers have come in slightly with a comparison of the leading AFL bookmakers odds showing Essendon between $1.51 up to $1.58 in the head to head market while Sydney are trading between $2.45 up to $2.62. The line handicap varies amongst the bookies with lines ranging between Essendon -9.5 Sydney +9.5 up to Bombers -11 Swans +11. The over under total line is O/U190.5 points which combined with an average line of -/+10.5 means the bookies are approximating the Bombers to score 100.5 points to the Swans 90 points.

Essendon: The Bombers suffered only their second loss of the season last week going down to Melbourne (52-58) as $1.055 (-56.5) favourites. In other recent AFL scores and results Essendon have beaten Greater Western Sydney (119-53) and Richmond (128-109). Sitting in 2nd spot on the ladder the Bombers have an 8-2 record having averaged 30.4 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 22.4 for a differential of +8. In AFL betting results Essendon have been the most profitable team against the head to head odds with a profit of +$703.40 for $100 bets each week and they are 5-5 (-$25) against the line handicap bet.

Essendon Line Up: In Bombers team news Nathan Lovett-Murray, Tayte Pears and Travis Colyer are out and David Myers, Cale Hooker and Dyson Heppell are all in.

The Sydney Swans: Sydney are 5th on the ladder with 7 wins and 3 losses. They have averaged 26.7 scoring shots per game while conceding 21 for a positive differential of +5.7. The Swans past 3 matches has seen them victorious over Western Bulldogs (132-40) and Melbourne (138-37) while they suffered a loss to St Kilda (83-111). In AFL line betting results the Swans are 6-4 (+$170) and against the head to head odds they show a profit of +$213.50.

Sydney swans Line Up: For Sydney we see Nick Malceski and Andrejs Everitt come in to the side and Ben McGlynn and Luke Parker out.

Winning Margin Odds for Essendon v Sydney: Comparing odds at the Leading Bookmakers we see that currently prices for Essendon to win by 1-39 points range between $2.15 up to $2.4, Essendon by 40+ $4.10 up to $4.65 and for Sydney to cause the upset by 1-39 points the odds vary from $3.00 up to $3.10 or you can get Sydney by 40+ from $7.50 up to $12.00 and the draw option is up to $67.

AFL Betting History Essendon v Sydney Round 11, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
02/06/07 1.32 -24.5 Sydney 73 V 74 Essendon 24.5 3.76
18/05/08 1.12 -37.5 Sydney 143 V 52 Essendon 37.5 7.4
11/07/09 1.71 -7.5 Sydney 72 V 107 Essendon 7.5 2.28
06/06/10 1.78 -5.5 Sydney 89 V 80 Essendon 5.5 2.16
03/04/11 1.83 -3.5 Sydney 98 V 93 Essendon 3.5 2.1
06/08/11 2.04 0 Essendon 100 V 99 Sydney 0 1.87

Essendon v Sydney History: Six regular season meeting over the past 5 years has seen both teams win 3 apiece. The home team has held the advantage winning 4-2 and the favourite v underdog record is 3-3. The line handicap has not come into play with the team winning outright covering the line bet 6-0. The average game total for the last six games is 180.

The Prediction - Here at our handicapping indicates value on the Bombers against the line. We have taken Essendon -9.5 points at $1.91.