Carlton v Geelong

AFL Round 11, 2012 -

Carlton are underdogs for their round 11 Friday night clash with Geelong at Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm. Comparing the Bookmakers AFL Odds we see that Carlton are currently trading between $2.50 up to $2.60 in the head to head market while Geelong are priced between $1.50 up to $1.55. The Line Handicap sees Carlton +12.5 Geelong -12.5 with most bookies however a line of +/-13.5 is also available.

The Carlton Blues: Carlton have started as favourites in all of their last four games but have only managed the one win, against MEL (107-49) with the losses being against PORT (45-99), ADE (55-124) and STK (98-122). Sitting in 7th spot with a 6-4 record Brett Ratten and his Carlton side are finding themselves receiving plenty of media scrutiny and will no doubt be looking to this game to get their season back on track. Carlton has averaged 27 scoring shots per game through the first 10 rounds while allowing an average of 22.9 for a +4.10 differential. In AFL betting results the Blues are 5-5 (-$25) against the line handicap and they are -$154.90 against the money line odds.

In Carlton Line Up News we see Paul Bower, Heath Scotland and Edward Curnow all ruled out with Mathew Kreuzer, Lachlan Henderson and Nick Dugan coming in.

The Geelong Cats: The Cats are sitting in 8th place on the ladder with a 6-4 record having averaged 26.2 scoring shots per game while conceding 23.2 for a +3 differential. In AFL Results over the last 4 weeks Geelong have beaten GWS (126-61) and WB (95-75) and have lost to COL (84-96) and ADEL (72-122), failing to cover the line handicap in all four games. In overall betting results Geelong currently have the worst record in the league against the line handicap bet having gone 2-8 (-$610) and they are -$164.30 against the head to head odds.

Geelong Line Up: Out from the Cats line up is Tom Gillies, Jesse Stringer, Billie Smedts, Jordan Schroder and Lincohn McCarthy with Joel Corey, Corey Enright, David Wojcinski, Tom Hawkins and Steven Motlop coming in.

Winning Margin Odds for Carlton v Geelong: Comparing the Best Online Bookmakers odds for this market we see that currently prices for Carlton to win by 1-39 points are between $3.10 up to $3.25, Carlton by 40+ $9.60 up to $12.50 while for Geelong to get the win by 1-39 points the odds are between $2.15 up to $2.36 and for Geelong by 40+ points $3.60 up to $3.90, with the draw at $67.

AFL Betting History Carlton v Geelong Round 11, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
07/04/07 1.74 -5.5 Geelong 162 V 84 Carlton 5.5 2.23
31/05/08 1.14 -39.5 Geelong 133 V 77 Carlton 39.5 6.5
07/08/09 4.5 26.5 Carlton 97 V 62 Geelong -26.5 1.24
26/04/10 4.89 28.5 Carlton 104 V 68 Geelong -28.5 1.22
20/08/10 1.19 -29.5 Geelong 121 V 79 Carlton 29.5 5.42
20/05/11 2.88 14.5 Carlton 100 V 102 Geelong -14.5 1.48

History between Carlton v Geelong: With six regular season games between these two clubs over the past 5 seasons it is Geelong who have won 4 to Carlton's 2 wins. The home team has prevailed 5-1 and the starting favourite has won 4-2. The team who wins outright has also covered the line handicap 5-1 and the home team has covered the line in all 6 games. The highest priced underdog to cash has been Carlton in 2010 as $4.89 (+28.5) underdogs. The average game total over the past 6 regular season games is 198.17 points.

The Prediction - Our handicapping numbers here at show value on the Blues in the head to head market, we have backed Carlton at odds of $2.60. No other plays on this game at this stage.