AFL Round 10, 2012 -
St Kilda host Richmond in what should be a cracker of a start to AFL Round 10. Bookmakers have priced the two teams evenly with current AFL Odds seeing the Saints head to head odds range between $1.80 up to $1.909 while the Tigers are priced between $1.90 up to $2.02. With odds fairly even there is little to no line handicap for this game. The bookmakers who are running a line have St Kilda -2.5 Richmond +2.5.
St Kilda Saints: The Saints are coming off a 28 point win over the Swans last week (16.15) 111 to (12.11) 83. Scott Watters has his side sitting in 7th place on the ladder with a 5-4 record. St Kilda has averaged 26.22 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 22.67 for a scoring shots differential of +3.55. In AFL betting results this season the Saints are 4-5 (-$120) against the line handicap and they are +$87.10 against the head to head odds.
Richmond: The Tigers are themselves coming off a great result last week. They met Hawthorn as $3.26 (+22.5 point) underdogs and caused the upset of the weekend, beating the Hawks by 62 points (21.11) 137 to (10.15) 75. That win takes Richmond to 12th on the ladder with a 4-5 record. They have averaged 27 scoring shots per game while conceding 24.44 for a differential of +2.56. The Tigers are the equal best team against the AFL Line Handicap bet this season with a 7-2 (+$465) record (for $100 bets each week) as per the BetonFooty.com.au stats AFL Line Betting Results. Against the head to head odds they are showing a small loss of -$50.10.
St Kilda v Richmond's Winning Margin Odds: Here at BetonFooty.com.au we are constantly highlighting the benefits of shopping the leading Bookmakers to make sure you are betting into the highest odds. The winning margin market is no exception; just take a look at the difference in these odds. Currently the odds for St Kilda to win by 1-39 points range between $2.35 up to $2.63, St Kilda by 40+ $5.20 up to $6.25 while if you fancy Richmond by 1-39 points the odds range between $2.50 up to $2.75, Richmond by 40+ $5.55 up to $7.50 and the draw option is around $51.
History between St Kilda v Richmond: The Saints and Tigers have met in 7 regular season games over the past 5 years. St Kilda has won all bar one of those 6-0-1, with the other being a draw. The home v away record is 3-3-1 while the starting favourite v underdog is 6-0-1. While St Kilda has had the edge in the head to head match ups Richmond have managed to cover the line handicap bet 4-3. The average game total is 187.29. The last time they played St Kilda started as $1.27 (-25.5 points) favourites only to have the game end in a 95-95 draw with Richmond covering the line handicap by 25.5 points.
The Prediction - Our numbers here at BetonFooty.com.au pretty much agree with those that the bookmakers have posted. We have the Saints at around 57.5% chance and the Tigers 42.5%. So as the odds and lines stand at the moment we don't see enough value to warrant a play.