AFL Round 10, 2012 -
The Geelong v GWS match up is not offering much in the way for Cats supporters in the head to head odds market. Currently Geelong is $1.01 while the Giants range between $17 up to $34 on the money line. With not many punters wanting to risk $100 to win $1, focus turns to the Line Handicap market where we see that currently the bookies AFL Lines have Geelong -74.5 GWS +74.5.
Geelong: Recent AFL Results for the Cats include a win last week over the Bulldogs (95-75) as $1.18 favourites, where they failed to cover the Line of -30.5. Round 8 saw Geelong fall short in the head to head and line bets against Collingwood (84-96) as $2.31 (+6.5) underdogs and in round 7 against Adelaide they went down (72-122) as $1.67 (-7.5) favourites. Geelong are currently sitting in 9th spot on the ladder with 5 wins and 4 losses, having averaged 25.67 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 24 for a differential of +1.67. In AFL betting results the Cats have not been the punters friend overall with a 2-7 (-$510) record against the line handicap and -$165.30 verse the money line odds.
Greater Western Sydney: If you have been keeping up to date with our AFL Line Betting Results section you will know that the Giants (along with Richmond) are the most profitable team against the AFL line handicap bet with a 7-2 (+$465) record. Taking a look at Greater Western Sydney's impressive Line Handicap record we see that they covered the line of (+90.5) against SYD by +27.5 points, WC (+105.5) by +24.5, ADE (+89.5) by +43.5, WB (+63.5) by +21.5, CARL (+85.5) by +18.5, GC (+15.5) by +42.5 and ESS (+68.5) by +2.5. The two games that the Giants failed to cover the line were against NTH MEL (+75.5) -53.5 and BRI (+30.5) -61.5. The difficult aspect of GWS and line handicaps is predicting how hard the opposition is going to keep pushing when they have a comfortable lead. Thus far only North Melbourne and Brisbane have kept the scoring going till the end.
Margin Betting Odds for Cats v Giants: A quick check of the leading Bookmakers prices reveals that currently the highest odds for Geelong by 1-39 points is $6.2, Geelong by 40+ is $1.14 and if you like long shots, the Giants by 1-39 points is at odds of $35 and for Kevin Sheedy's side to win by 40+ you can get $251.00.
The Prediction - Here at BetonFooty.com.au our handicapping numbers don't show enough value to make a play at this stage. The current line handicap of -74.5 is just outside our go zone, if it drops a few points before game day we will make a play on Geelong.