Essendon v Melbourne

AFL Round 10, 2012 -

The Essendon Bombers are looking to make it 5 in a row, when they host the Melbourne Demons Saturday 7.40pm at the MCG. As you would expect Essendon are at virtually unbackable odds with the latest AFL Odds seeing them priced between $1.03 up to $1.05 while the odds for Melbourne to get their breakthrough win for the season range between $10 up to $13. The current Line Handicap for this game sees a line of Essendon -54.5 Melbourne +54.5.

Essendon: James Hird's Bombers are coming off a comfortable 66 point win over GWS (119-53) as $1.01 (-68.5) favourites. That win took Essendon to 8-1 for the season and sees them sitting at the top of the ladder along side West Coast. Essendon have averaged 31.33 scoring shots per game while allowing an average of 22.89 for a positive differential of +8.44. In AFL betting results the Bombers have been the most profitable team against the head to head odds showing a profit of +$803.40 (for $100 bets each week) as per our AFL Odds betting Results, while against the line handicap they have gone 5-4 (+$75).

Melbourne: Despite being competitive in the first half against Carlton last week the Demons fell away in the final two terms and went down by 58 points (107-49). Melbourne have averaged 18.22 scoring shots per game while allowing 32.67 for a negative differential of -14.45 scoring shots per game. Unlike GWS who have covered the line 7-2, Melbourne have been losing straight up and failing to cover the line, with their current line handicap record looking 2-7 (-$510). Against the line handicap the demons have covered against STK (+40.5) by +22.5 points and GEE (+58.5) by +15.5 points, while they have failed to cover against BRI (-15.5) falling short by -56.5 points, WC (+53.5) by -54.50, RICH (+24.5) by -34.5, WB (+18.5) by -2.5, HAW (+48.5) by -17.5, SYD (+40.5) by -60.5 and CAR (+55.5) by -2.5 points.

Essendon v Melbourne Winning Margin Odds: Currently the highest odds for the various options available in the winning margin market at the leading Online Bookies are Essendon by 1-39 points $3.35, Essendon by 40+ $1.43, Melbourne by 1-39 points $13.50, Melbourne by 40+ $101.00 and the draw is $126.

AFL Betting History Essendon v Melbourne Round 10, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
29/06/07 1.64 -6.5 Essendon 125 V 123 Melbourne 6.5 2.28
02/08/08 1.27 -26.5 Essendon 124 V 108 Melbourne 26.5 4.2
19/06/09 1.36 -20.5 Essendon 131 V 83 Melbourne 20.5 3.2
11/07/10 1.97 0 Melbourne 122 V 103 Essendon 0 1.93
03/06/11 1.22 -27.5 Essendon 68 V 101 Melbourne 27.5 4.97

Bombers v Demons History: With one regular season game played each season between these two teams over the past 5 years, it is Essendon who hold a slight advantage 3-2. The home team has won 4 times to the away sides 1 win and the favourite v underdog record is 3-2. The average game total over the last 5 games is 217.60 points. The last two games have been won by the Demons with last years result going their way (101-68), winning as $4.97 (+27.5) underdogs.

The Prediction -'s handicapping numbers indicate value on the Bombers against the line handicap. We have taken Essendon -56.6 points which is a point or two higher than where the line currently sits, meaning we pulled the trigger a bit quick on this game and could have gotten a better number by waiting, however we are still happy with our position.