Richmond v Carlton
AFL Round 1, 2012
Richmond host Carlton in the traditional AFL round 1 blockbuster at the MCG this Thursday night. The bookies opening head to head odds for this game saw Richmond at around $3.15 while Carlton opened at $1.42. There has been some movement since the opening with the current Live AFL Odds showing Richmond in to $3.00 and Carlton at $1.44, with the AFL Line Handicap ranging from the Tigers +16.5 to +17.5 between the various bookmakers.
| Date | Odds | Line | Home | Score | V | Score | Away | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/07 | 1.81 | -5.5 | Carlton | 115 |  |
98 | Richmond | 5.5 | 2.13 |
| 20/03/08 | 1.79 | -4.5 | Carlton | 79 | |
109 | Richmond | 4.5 | 2.16 |
| 28/06/08 | 1.73 | 0 | Richmond | 88 | |
118 | Carlton | 0 | 2.25 |
| 26/03/09 | 2.15 | 6.5 | Richmond | 67 | |
150 | Carlton | -6.5 | 1.8 |
| 11/07/09 | 1.29 | -24.5 | Carlton | 109 | |
89 | Richmond | 24.5 | 4 |
| 25/03/10 | 2.93 | 15.5 | Richmond | 64 | |
120 | Carlton | -15.5 | 1.46 |
| 14/08/10 | 1.35 | -20.5 | Carlton | 156 | |
67 | Richmond | 20.5 | 3.52 |
| 24/03/11 | 1.39 | -19.5 | Carlton | 104 | |
84 | Richmond | 19.5 | 3.22 |
| 02/07/11 | 4.22 | 25.5 | Richmond | 81 | |
184 | Carlton | -25.5 | 1.27 |
Richmond need to go back to the first round of 2008 to find the last time they tasted victory against Carlton (109-79). Carlton have won 8 of the last 9 head to head encounters between these two sides including the last seven straight and have covered the AFL Line Handicap 7-2.
Looking at the last two seasons where the Blues have gone 4-0 against the head to head odds and line handicap, we can see that betting Carlton against the AFL Line Handicap has been the most profitable +$380 (for $100 bets at average odds of $1.95) while the profit on the head to head is $147. Carlton’s margin of victory over Richmond in the last 4 games has been by 103, 20, 89 and 56. The average game total over the last 2 years has been 215 while the average over the last 5 years is 209.11 points.
Richmond have not released an official updated injury list at this time however David Astbury is still listed as 6 weeks and Dean MacDonald and Kelvin Moore are both listed as indefinite. At this stage Carlton's injury list includes Blake Bray, Nick Duigan, Michael Jamison, Andrew McInnes and Rob Warnock who are all estimated to return in a week. Jeremy Laidler 1-2 weeks, Tom Bell 4 weeks and Dylan Buckley and Rhys O'Keeffe both 7 weeks.
