AFL Grand Final Hawthorn v Sydney

AFL Grand Final, 2012 -

HawthornSydney Swans

This is what it is all about, Grand Final Saturday! Hawthorn verse Sydney at the MCG, 2.30pm. The latest Live AFL Grand Final Odds see Hawthorn as pronounced favourites with their head to head odds currently trading between $1.44 up to $1.471 while Sydney who will be happy to assume the underdogs status, are priced between $2.75 up $2.90. The line handicap market sees the average bookmaker line being Hawthorn -14.5 Sydney +14.5 although you can find handicaps of -/+13.5 and -/+14 with a bit of shopping. If you like betting on the game totals the early over under total has been posted at O/U 175.5 points.

These two sides have met twice this season with one win apiece, interestingly both wins were recorded by the visiting team. In round 5 Sydney defeated Hawthorn (16.10) 106 to (10.9) 69 at Aurora Stadium as $3.69 (+19.5 pt) underdogs, in a game which saw the Swans turn a 20 point half time deficit into a 37 point win. Round 22 was the most recent encounter between the Swans and the hawks, on that occasion it was the Hawks who prevailed (15.12) 102 to (14.11 (95) as $1.806 (-2.5 pt) road favorites. The Swans started stronger with 4 unanswered goals in the first term but the Hawks got things moving in the 2nd with seven of their own.

Through the regular season and finals games Hawthorn have averaged 32.96 scoring shots per game while conceding an average of 21.75 for a scoring shots per game differential of +11.21. The Swans have by comparison have averaged 26.96 and allowed 20.67 for a differential of +6.29. On average Hawthorn have scored 3.68 points per scoring shot compared to 3.8 points for Sydney

Hawthorn has won 12 out of 15 games played at the MCG this season and 11 straight against interstate opponents. The Swans have lost 11 of their last 13 games played at the MCG and they have lost their last 4 against the Hawks there also. So if the Swans manage an upset on Saturday they will have overcome some fairly heavy statistics weighing against them.

Winning Margin Odds: We have made mention quite regularly about the importance of shopping the Bookmakers to get the best odds and lines and AFL Grand Final betting is no different. Looking at the current odds for the winning margin bet for Grand Final Day we see that for Hawthorn to win by 1-39 points the odds range between $2.05 up to $2.20, for Hawthorn by 40+ points the odds are between $3.80 up to $4.30 while for Sydney to get the win by 1-39 points $3.05 up to $3.35 and by 40+ $12.50 u to $17 with the draw option at $42. As you can see if you placed a winning $100 bet on any of the main 4 options in this market the difference between taking the highest odds to the lowest would mean the difference of an extra $15 for HAW 1-39pt, $50 HAW 40+, $30 SYD 1-39pt or $450 SYD 40+.

AFL Betting History Hawthorn v Sydney Grand Final, 2012
Date Odds Line Home Score V Score Away Line Odds
09/06/07 1.88 -11.5 Hawthorn 66 V 75 Sydney 11.5 2.04
02/09/07 2.5 11.5 Sydney 141 V 69 Hawthorn -11.5 1.61
13/07/08 1.42 -16.5 Hawthorn 106 V 75 Sydney 16.5 3.14
04/04/09 3.09 16.6 Sydney 143 V 105 Hawthorn -16.6 1.43
07/06/09 1.43 -15.5 Hawthorn 86 V 75 Sydney 15.5 3.06
30/05/10 1.35 -21.5 Hawthorn 79 V 77 Sydney 21.5 3.55
07/08/10 2.15 5.5 Sydney 129 V 85 Hawthorn -5.5 1.75
22/05/11 1.78 -3.5 Sydney 60 V 106 Hawthorn 3.5 2.17
29/04/12 1.327 -19.5 Hawthorn 69 V 106 Sydney 19.5 3.69
27/08/12 2.12 2.5 Sydney 95 V 102 Hawthorn -2.5 1.806

The Prediction - Here at our handicapping numbers are fairly close to the bookies numbers. While anything is possible when you mix the pressure, nerves and a capacity crowd of Grand Final Day but we would have to agree that Hawthorn deserve the favouritism the bookies have given them. While there are likely to be more bets placed on this game than any other this season ours won't be one of them. We have had another profitable AFL betting season and hope that all of the regulars have too! Once this weekends two big Grand Finals are decided we turn our attention to NFL betting with our sister site, if you like a punt on American Football why not drop by and check out the site.