AFL Betting - Head to Head Odds

AFL Odds betting which you might also find listed under AFL Head to Head Odds or Moneyline Odds at your online bookmaker is one of the simplest and most popular AFL betting types. You are presented with odds for both teams which are a representation of their respective percentage chances of winning as set by the bookmakers. You need only pick the team that wins the game in order to win your bet. While AFL head to head odds betting is straight forward enough, it is important to know how to read the odds.

Online bookmakers usually display AFL Odds like so :
Richmond 3.50
Carlton 1.30

So we can see in the above example that Carlton are favourites at decimal odds of $1.30 and Richmond are the underdogs at odds of $3.50. Basically for every $1 you bet on Carlton you will receive $1.30 (profit of .30) in return if they win and $3.5 (profit $2.50) if Richmond were to win. Both of those odds reflect a percentage chance for the teams to win which includes the bookmakers commission. To calculate those percentages we simply do the following (100/1.3) = 76.92% for Carlton and (100/3.5) = 28.57% for Richmond.

To work out their true percentages minus the bookmakers commission we first work out the bookmakers payout share which we do by adding the percentages 76.92 + 28.57 = 105.49 then 100/105.49 = 94.8% (bookmaker payout share. You them multiply the teams percentage by the payout share Carlton 76.92 X 94.8 = 72.92% and Richmond 28.57 X 94.8 = 27.08%. Now if you were to regularly bet into low odds of $1.30 such as those for Carlton in this example, you would need to win 76.92% of your bets just to break even. On the flip side those who regularly bet AFL odds of $3.5 would only need to win 28.57% of their bets to break even. The Top Online Bookmakers all off different commission structures with some being more competitive than others so it is good practice to compare odds before placing your next AFL footy bet.

The AFL Odds - Win Percentage Table below is a quick reference between the head to head odds and the relative win % for those odds.

AFL Odds - Win Percentage Table
Odds Win % Odds Win % Odds Win % Odds Win %
$1.15 86.96% $1.75 57.14% $2.35 42.55% $2.95 33.9%
$1.2 83.33% $1.8 55.56% $2.4 41.67% $3 33.33%
$1.25 80% $1.85 54.05% $2.45 40.82% $3.05 32.79%
$1.3 76.92% $1.9 52.63% $2.5 40% $3.1 32.26%
$1.35 74.07% $1.95 51.28% $2.55 39.22% $3.15 31.75%
$1.4 71.43% $2 50% $2.6 38.46% $3.2 31.25%
$1.45 68.97% $2.05 48.78% $2.65 37.74% $3.25 30.77%
$1.5 66.67% $2.1 47.62% $2.7 37.04% $3.3 30.3%
$1.55 64.52% $2.15 46.51% $2.75 36.36% $3.35 29.85%
$1.6 62.5% $2.2 45.45% $2.8 35.71% $3.4 29.41%
$1.65 60.61% $2.25 44.44% $2.85 35.09% $3.45 28.99%
$1.7 58.82% $2.3 43.48% $2.9 34.48% $3.5 28.57%

AFL Favourites or Underdogs

Well it all comes down to the odds, but as our AFL Favourites and Underdogs Win Percentage Table shows the moneyline favourites have won on average 66.88% of the time over the last 5 seasons. The average for home favourites from 2007 to 2011 is 71.19% while favourites playing away from home win at an average rate of 62.56%. When it comes to the underdogs we see that 31.67% of underdogs have won on average over the last 5 years with home underdogs at 35.48% and away underdogs at 27.86%.

AFL Favourites and Underdogs Win Percentage Table
Year Home Fav Away Fav Fav Avg Home Dog Away Dog Dog Avg
2007 69.31% 58.90% 64.11% 38.36% 29.70% 34.03%
2008 72.90% 69.12% 71.01% 29.41% 26.17% 27.79%
2009 70.48% 60.29% 65.39% 36.76% 29.52% 33.14%
2010 68.27% 51.39% 59.83% 47.22% 30.77% 39.00%
2011 75.00% 73.08% 74.04% 25.64% 23.25% 24.40%
07 - 11 71.19% 62.56% 66.88% 35.48% 27.86% 31.67%

Millions of Australians make tips each week in their work or social AFL footy tipping competitions striving to take home the cash come seasons end. If you are in a tipping comp and are undecided on which team to pick, keep in mind the above stats (favourites have won on average 66.88% of the time) which makes the favourite the safest pick when in doubt. For tipping comps that theory should work to your advantage however it would not be advisable for betting and risking your money. To check who this weeks favourites and underdogs are be sure to visit our Live AFL Odds page where you can compare live AFL odds from the leading online bookmakers.